Lions lineup gives Test team clues
What will the Lions lineup be for the first Test against South Africa?
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Monday, 15, Jun 2009 04:14
With the announcement of the British and Irish Lions team for Tuesday's fifth tour match in South Africa, the coaching staff dropped several clues about the likely make-up of the team for the first Test this weekend.
Here, inthenews.co.uk's Alistair Potter and Dominic Beaumont run through the team and name the likely starters in the XV for the match against the world champion Springboks on Saturday afternoon in Durban.
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THE BACKS by Alistair Potter
Full-back
The eyebrow-raising selection of Keith Earls in the number 15 jersey for the midweek match should be seen as no more than an experiment by McGeechan, who must surely have made his decision on his Test match full-back already.
Welshman Lee Byrne has been in scintillating form throughout the tour, and with two tries in three starts so far his complete exclusion from the Southern Kings game should be as obvious a clue as it gets that he is certain to start the first Test against the Boks. Ireland's Rob Kearney has done well when called upon, but he's head and shoulders behind Byrne.
inthenews.co.uk predicts...
Lee Byrne
He came into the tour as the likely first choice and his performances have done nothing to suggest he will not remain so for the first Test.
Left wing
Despite his undoubted quality, Shane Williams looks like he's been pushed into third place for this role in the Lions team behind two of the form players in Luke Fitzgerald and Ugo Monye.
Both are more than capable of holding their own and give a cutting edge to the back-three, although Fitzgerald is seen as a solid option while Monye is a bit more of a maverick selection. The raw pace of the Englishman is counting in his favour, but he didn't cover himself in glory at the weekend so will be relying on a good show in midweek.
inthenews.co.uk predicts...
Luke Fitzgerald
We've gone with Fitzgerald based on Monye's poor outing against the Western Province at the weekend, but it really is neck and neck in that race. With both men involved on Tuesday it could well come down to who gives the best account of themselves against the Southern Kings. Fitzgerald starts, but be in no doubt that Monye will feature.
Right wing
There's only one man in the reckoning for this position against South Africa - and with four tries in his three games so far, Tommy Bowe is clearly above the parapet.
On paper he arguably would have begun the tour outside the first-choice XV, what with world player of the year Shane Williams on the plane alongside his in-form countryman Leigh Halfpenny and Ireland's Luke Fitzgerald.
But Bowe has done little wrong in the southern hemisphere so far and should be rewarded with a spot in the Test team - especially as the prospect of facing Bryan Habana genuinely doesn't seem to bother him.
Fitzgerald has done well when called upon and Ugo Monye has also staked a claim, but both are more natural left-wingers.
inthenews.co.uk predicts...
Tommy Bowe
He's been clinical in the games he's played so far; his scoring rate speaks for itself; and he's in the form of his life at the moment. If Bowe misses out on the starting XV it would be the biggest shock of them all - journalists asking questions of the selectors at the press conference are unlikely to address any other issues.
Centres
There is some competition here, but it looks like a decision has already been made to go with Roberts and O'Driscoll - given that neither man is playing on Tuesday.
Riki Flutey has been troubled by injury and would be a major risk for Test match consideration at this stage, while Earls filling in at full-back against the Southern Kings suggests he is not in McGeechan's thoughts for a midfield role. Gordon D'Arcy has not done enough to usurp Roberts at inside centre, even though he knows O'Driscoll's game inside out from their time with both Ireland and Leinster.
inthenews.co.uk predicts...
Jamie Roberts and Brian O'Driscoll
This classic one-two punch looks a near certainty to face the Boks. The battering ram style of Roberts at 12 and the fleet-footed, quick-stepping guile of O'Driscoll at 13 would cause problems for the world champions in midfield and the combination has already borne fruit on the tour so far.
Fly-half
Before James Hook arrived as a late replacement, this was a straight contest between Stephen Jones and Ronan O'Gara. However, aside from proving that he has the cool temperament to kick vital penalties - as he showed with the last-gasp three points against Western Province - Hook has not done enough to force himself into the reckoning for a start against the Springboks. This is underlined by his inclusion against the Southern Kings.
Jones and O'Gara came in prepared for a straight fight for the ten jersey. Thus far, Jones is edging it with his overall solidity at the crucial stand-off position.
inthenews.co.uk predicts...
Stephen Jones
O'Gara is on the bench against the Southern Kings and will be expecting to play at least the final 20 minutes, so Jones will likely get the nod for the first Test.
Scrum-half
Mike Blair starts against the Southern Kings, so we can virtually count him out for the Springboks Test match, although most would have said this before the XV for Tuesday night was even named since he was a late call-up to the squad after Tomas O'Leary's injury.
Harry Ellis is on the bench and could still give the selectors a slight headache if he comes on and changes the game
inthenews.co.uk predicts...
Mike Phillips
With Jones a virtual certainty to start at fly-half, it seems likely that his regular Wales team-mate Phillips will form an experienced partnership in the half-backs.
McGeechan frequently refers to combinations, and none are more important - in the backs, at least - than the relationship between nine and ten. Phillips and Jones have shown they can operate very effectively together and it would be very unlike the coach to take a risk at this stage.
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THE FORWARDS by Dominic Beaumont
Hooker
Lee Mears has been left out of the squad to face the Southern Kings, suggesting he is being rested ahead of the main clash on Saturday. Ross Ford will have to use his selection as a final chance to impress.
inthenews.co.uk predicts...
Lee Mears
Mears' ability in the loose is ideally suited to the hard ground in South Africa, while his accuracy at the line out has edged him ahead of Ford and his scrummaging has been better than Matthew Rees.
Loose head prop
In the last two matches both loose head props, Gethin Jenkins and Andrew Sheridan, have struggled to impose themselves at the scrum. However, it was widely felt that Jenkins had been on the end of some rough refereeing decisions.
inthenews.co.uk predicts...
Gethin Jenkins
Jenkins has shown he is superior to the Englishman around the rucks so looks like he will be given a Test jersey.
Tight head prop
This is a less certain selection for head coach McGeechan, with all three players in the position playing well. Euan Murray is given one last chance to push his claim for the number three shirt following an impressive last 15 minutes against Western Province.
inthenews.co.uk predicts...
Adam Jones
Jones is the form player over the last 12 months out of the trio and is probably in pole position but Phil Vickery's experience may help him edge out the competition.
Second row
Paul O'Connell has been far from his best so far on tour, possibly because his game is not suited to the Lions' attempts to ratchet up big scores. But as tour captain his place in the first Test at the very least is assured.
That leaves one second row place available. Simon Shaw and Donncha O'Callaghan have been used sparingly so far, and the Irishman's dubious reward of the captaincy against the Southern Kings suggests, controversially, that he may not be involved alongside his countryman on Saturday.
inthenews.co.uk predicts...
Paul O'Connell and Alun Wyn Jones
Scotland's Nathan Hines looked to be pushing Jones very closely until a sub-par performance against Western Province. His selection in the back row against the Southern Kings may suggest McGeechan has already decided to play the Welshman against the Springboks.
Flankers
The back-row combination is possibly the most crucial choice for the Lions, to combat an area where South Africa are very, very strong.
Stephen Ferris was in prime position for one of the places before getting injured, while Joe Worsley's selection to face the Southern Kings suggests he has been overlooked for a Test place. That leaves David Wallace, Tom Croft and Martyn Williams battling it out for two places.
inthenews.co.uk predicts...
Tom Croft and David Wallace
Croft, who is equally comfortable in the second row, is a valuable addition to the Lions at the line out against Bakkies Botha and Victor Matfield.
Both Croft and Wallace have the necessary pace and bulk to get to rucks and clear them out quickly and are strong ball carriers. Williams is short of matches having been injured at the start of the tour and looks likely to miss out despite impressing against Western Province.
Number eight
Andy Powell has been selected for the second match running against the Southern Kings, suggesting Jamie Heaslip is being rested ahead of the first Test.
Heaslip was very effective against the Golden Lions and the Sharks, while Powell was inconsistent until a strong display against Western Province on Saturday.
inthenews.co.uk predicts...
Jamie Heaslip
Although Heaslip is young and inexperienced he has shown the perfect balance of tough tackling in defence and good carrying in attack. Powell has a tendency to give away soft penalties and is a little one dimensional, giving the Irishman the advantage.