Tehran and Damascus: The capital cities of Lebanon's political crisis
The flames have died down in Beirut but Lebanon remains on a knife-edge
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Friday, 16, May 2008 07:22
The crippling political crisis afflicting Lebanon has very little to do with the Lebanese people, it has been claimed.
The real issue at the heart of the deadlock is instead Syrian and Iranian involvement in the fractious country.
So claims Nadim Shehadi, an associate fellow of Chatham House's Middle East programme.
His comments come as the disparate factions of Lebanon's political climate hold Arab League-mediated talks in Doha.
But Mr Shehadi is downbeat on the success of the discussion in the Qatari capital.
"I can't see what the talks could achieve in Doha that they could not achieve [in the past]," he told inthenews.co.uk's Matthew Champion.
"Hizbullah is not going to relinquish its arms; there is too much investment in it."
Lebanon's latest crisis began when the western-backed government of Fouad Siniora threatened to remove Hizbullah's telecoms network and suspended the chief of Beirut airport security amid spying allegations.
This led to Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah saying the government's actions amounted to a declaration of war, with the Shia Muslim organisation's fighters taking to the streets and gaining control of Beirut earlier in May.
But Hizbullah, which is reported to have been preparing for a general strike for weeks, was unable to retain control of the capital, with the neutrally-viewed army arriving and Hizbullah fighters dispersing.
Mr Shehadi strongly denies the claim that Hizbullah's guns are the strongest political force in Lebanon, which last fought a civil war in 1975-1990, following the Syrian withdrawal in 2005.
"The government and the pro-government side rely on its international protection, which is equally strong," he said, equating the political struggle to two duellists meeting in a square with very different weapons.
Mr Shehadi accepted that Hizbullah had the "upper hand" going into the Qatari talks.
"Its got its finger on the trigger of a gun pointed to everybody's head; it is holding the country hostage."
Hizbullah's victory may have come at a high cost, however.
"Hizbullah has lost a lot by winning this battle - it has a halo above its head to be a resistor against Israel to defend the country with God on its side.
"[Its fighters] have lost a lot of support and their halos are slipping.
"They really showed a very ugly face, as opposed to a very holy face before," Mr Shehadi continued in a reference to Hizbullah attacks upon offices of the media and political parties.
But despite playing down the chances of civil war, the peaceful resistance of the government, which ordered its armed supporters to stand down, has its dangers too.
"The danger is Hizbullah has crossed this line; the government played Gandhi - the government scored a lot of points by playing Gandhi," Mr Shehadi explained.
"Nobody in the country wants a civil war, even a lot of Hizbullah supporters would agree with that."
Ultimately elections will determine the political fate of Lebanon, Mr Shehadi insisted, with power virtually impossible to seize via a coup d'etat.
Lebanon, the only country in the region never to suffer a military coup, has checks and balances ingrained in its political makeup that make political gains the only route into power for Hizbullah.
"The truth of this is although they did occupy the city they could not turn into an army of occupation," he explained.
"They just had to withdraw and pass it over to the army."
Mr Shehadi is urging the international community to engage with Tehran and Damascus, which he says are "openly funding Hizbullah" to help resolve Lebanon's political wounds.
"Otherwise it is still the same deadlock. This is not about a disagreement between the Lebanese. This is about the Syrian and Iranian involvement in Lebanon."
Nadim Shehadi was talking to Matthew Champion.