Diplomatic crisis 'reaching new low'
Wednesday, 20 Aug 2008 12:37
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US-Russian relations are at their lowest ebb for ten years, a Eurasia expert has said.
James Nixey of Chatham House says diplomatic deadlock over Russia's "territorial grab" in Georgia has led to Moscow and Washington being at their most distant for a decade.
He predicts an "impasse" over the settlement of peacekeeping arrangements in Georgia's breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Russia has maintained a peacekeeping presence since 1992 but the US says an international force is now more appropriate.
"There will be an impasse – a kind of stalemate which we're heading towards," he told
inthenews.co.uk. "Things have been bad before – one keeps wondering how much lower they can go."
The Americans are frustrated by their hampered ability to protect power in the region, Mr Nixey said. And they regret Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili's decision to enter into conflict, which was opposed by Washington.
"Quietly they are rather irritated this has happened in the first place," he added. "They will continue to come out in support of Georgia - but don't forget that American power in this region is limited. Russian power in this region is far easier to exert."
Another weakness in Washington's position lies in the ineffectiveness of its warnings. Russia is not listening to the US' threats to throw it out of the G8, for example. "They don't respond well to lectures or threats," Mr Nixey said of Russian policymakers.
And with
European states like France and Germany backing a less confrontational approach the EU is divided, reducing the pressure brought against Russia still further.
"The extent of EU unity is in direct proportion to the extent that Russia becomes aggressive and assertive," Mr Nixey explained, suggesting that Moscow policymakers have played the game "rather elegantly" in judging how far to go.
He predicts the next week will see a limited withdrawal as a result – but we can expect to see continued reports of shooting and "bad behaviour" on both sides.
"The dust hasn't settled yet," he finished. "There's very little that one can say for certain here… no one really knows what's happening."