Sudan – a long way from peace
Monday, 14 Jul 2008 13:00
No deal in Darfur
Sudan In Focus
Efforts to secure a peace agreement in Darfur appear to be stymied by the region's deep political complexities. Full Story
Efforts to secure a peace agreement in Darfur appear to be stymied by the region's deep political complexities.
Previous deals have come and gone, leaving negotiators frustrated as the conflict between government-backed militia and rebel factions continues. Up to 300,000 people have now died in Darfur as a result, the UN now estimates, while 1.5 million have been displaced. Calls for action have prompted protests around the world. But mediators remain downcast.
In 2006 a peace deal signed by one group caused the creation of more than a dozen separate others. Hope that talks in Sirte in summer 2007 might yield a better result proved groundless; too many questions remained unanswered at the pre-negotiation stage. The absence of three prominent groups – the Justice and Equality Movement (Jem), the Sudan Liberation Army and another faction - made whatever tentative deals were reached unworkable in the field.
No room for consensus
The list of reasons why negotiations in Darfur struggle to get off the ground is a depressingly long one. At the heart of the problem is disunity between the five main rebel groups. These often refuse to recognise each other and have very different positions and demands. Some want political agreement before a ceasefire; others would prefer it the other way round.
Mediators end up wringing their hands at this bleak situation. There is some room for manoeuvre, however, as prospects for peace are influenced by events on the ground. Experts say the rebel groups are constantly re-evaluating their negotiating stances based on realpolitik. In some circumstances this might be a good thing. Not at present, unfortunately.
Rebel efforts to export the war out of Darfur appear to be having a real impact on the situation. Many fear military activity in the neighbouring South Kurdufan region could become commonplace, while attacks on Khartoum and Omdurman, apparently in response to a full-scale raid on N'Djamena, are enraging the Sudanese government. The town of Abyei has been burned to the ground for the first time, displacing up to 50,000 people. Darfuris fear further reprisals in the coming weeks.
Such developments hardly set the scene for peace talks. There are some points of optimism; some hope to start the process with those who are willing and hope others will jump on the bandwagon. Others say the Sudanese government may be getting closer to considering a negotiated settlement. But the overall situation remains bleak. Bad news for the people of Darfur.
Foreign intervention?
The British government is frustrated by the situation, both officially and behind closed doors. Tying political pressure with the need for security is something western governments have been doing for a while. April 2008 saw Gordon Brown calling for peace talks in London, but the offer has not yet prompted progress. Officials appear somewhat resigned.
Peacekeepers currently in Darfur are nowhere near capable of doing their literal job. They are under-resourced and, at least for now, under strength. Governments acknowledge the United Nations/African Union force, known as Unamid, cannot solve the problem by itself, but at present there are no real attempts to force the issue through other means.
The appointment of a chief mediator may help matters along. It is also acknowledged that economic incentives have been underused, and there has not been a proper appreciation of the way Darfur ties in with the wider regional situation. The latter may prove crucial to making progress. Here, though, is yet more agreement-sapping complexity.
A proxy war
Darfur, as Daoud Hari points out in The Translator, covered both sides of the Chad-Sudan border before the British and French drew a line on the map in the 1920s. This fundamental truth underpins the cross-border rivalries and alliances which now dominate the two countries' proxy war. Mr Hari says they have a "love-hate" relationship, but the truth is more complicated than that. Ethnic allegiances run deeper than simple border lines and the Zaghawa, Tama and other tribes play an important role in deciding the region's politics.
Pro-Sudan groups were behind attacks on N'Djamena; others were already rebelling against Idriss Deby, the president of Chad, prior to 2002. On the other side of the border Chad groups are helping take on the janjaweed. There is also some conflict between the different groups. The result is extremely difficult to understand – and even harder to influence from outside.
Efforts to ensure security for those living in Darfur are increasingly being influenced by events outside the region. As those within government concede, however, progress towards a peace agreement – or even towards negotiations – will be difficult to achieve without the broadest possible framework. This must cover security, political solutions, the economy and the dynamics of the wider region.
Those suffering from headaches will be excused – but working out the answer to this puzzle is the only way those still suffering in Darfur will have a future. The struggle goes on.
Alex Stevenson