World News Story

23 November 2008 10:50 BST

Kenya's forced marriage

Kenyan prime minister Raila Odinga is at pains to insist his partnership with president Mwai Kibaki is one of "good faith" – but just how sincere is he being?

That was the question on everyone's lips as Mr Odinga addressed an audience of parliamentarians and Chatham House members in the House of Commons this week.

Mr Odinga was in Britain to encourage UK investors and tourists to return to Kenya after violence following a disputed presidential election at the end of last year.

After the December 27th vote a challenge to the result by the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) resulted in the country's ethnic tensions spilling over. At least 1,500 people died; some believe the real figure to be nearer 6,000.

When talking about this experience Mr Odinga doesn't mince his words, admitting: "We've been through hell and back."

Critics have questioned whether the political confrontation seen in that conflict was entirely necessary. It was certainly the culmination of years of rivalry between Mr Odinga and Mr Kibaki, who had allied to help the latter to power in 2002.

Only mediation talks chaired by former UN secretary general Kofi Annan brought them together, with a new office of prime minister being created especially for Mr Odinga.

Now the pair are presenting a united front to the world. "Both President Kibaki and I are determined to provide strong leadership," he insisted. They are "true partners" working in "good faith" with each other. Do the words ring true?

Politics his own way

It has been a long and winding road to power for Mr Odinga, who has experienced a lengthy political career characterised by frequent departures from parties.

The cycle has been a straightforward one: alliances based on mutual self-interest, followed by a tempestuous move to create a new party which can cope with his forceful personality.

His personal history with Mr Kibaki reflects this. The pair joined forces to oust former president Daniel Arap Moi six years ago but then fell out, going over to Mr Moi's side of the fence. The 'kingmaker' tag has, unsurprisingly, gravitated towards him, which makes it all the more surprising when he focuses his remarks in Westminster on the principle of unity.

"Tragic events may have made us wiser," he said, talking frankly about the ethnic conflicts which underlined the post-election violence. He says Kenya's "veneer of democracy" was easily pierced and that "ethnic distrust and hatred" created a "ticking timebomb" which led to the "orgy of violence".

"What we've been through was probably a blessing in disguise. This has helped us. Kenyans are now finding and understanding each other.

"We are dealing with the issues that took us to the precipice."

The new government certainly appears to be acting in this way. A commission is being set up to investigate the conduct of recent elections. These will lead to reforms, Mr Odinga says, including the makeup of Kenya's electoral commission. Land reforms are underway which will make land "accessible to people who want to use it" and solve the disputes he partly blames for the recent violence. Finally a truth, justice and reconciliation commission is being established to address "historical injustices since injustice".

Question-marks

One would-be Kenyan MP was deeply unhappy with these statements. She asked not to be named but disagreed strongly with the Chatham House vote of thanks' assessment that Mr Odinga's speech was "a sweeping vision of the progress and setbacks to democracy in Africa".

"There will never be redresses of impunity. Never," she insisted, talking of "deals through the back door" which will ensure people "keep quiet".

That two-facedness was part of the reason why many of Mr Odinga's answers were too "wishy-washy", she continued. Some ingredient was missing. Certainly Mr Odinga took lengthy recourse to words in his ear from his foreign minister before answering the trickier questions. The reason, she insisted, lay in the unequal nature of his alliance with Mr Kibaki.

"They are like a forced marriage – we don't know whether it will last or not," she said. "Most Kenyans think it is a matter of time. They were forced into it by the west."

At the end of the meeting a raft of Kenyan cabinet members were acknowledged. All of them, bar one, were from Mr Kibaki's Party of National Unity. It was suggested that their presence was to ensure Mr Odinga did not step out of line in his comments. His speech was impressive, his sentiments of togetherness persuasive. But there was a sense of questions being unanswered – beyond those directly put to him. The truth behind this odd couple's relationship remains as elusive as ever.

Alex Stevenson