Israel-Gaza conflict: History repeated?
Israeli forces have divided Gaza in two, while warplanes continue to bombard the territory
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Wednesday, 07, Jan 2009 07:40
By Matthew Champion
Just as they did in southern Lebanon in the summer of 2006, the Israeli army is dominating headlines by pursuing military action against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Similarities between the 33-day conflict against Hizbullah two years ago and the ongoing operation in Gaza, currently in its 12th day with a death-toll in excess of 600, are already being drawn.
But whereas in 2006 the capture of two Israeli soldiers sparked a response aimed at ending Hizbullah influence in southern Lebanon, the Jewish state has been much vaguer in its objectives this time around.
Ministers have repeatedly gone on the record to deny Israel is seeking the destruction of Hamas and regime change, despite branding a Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip as a hostile entity and enforcing a blockade on the region since the group seized control two summers ago.
This time around in Gaza, Israel insists it is aiming to end rocket-fire from Hamas-linked groups into its territory, which began again on December 19th when a six-month Egyptian-brokered truce ended.
But whereas popular opinion holds that Israel suffered a humiliating defeat against Hizbullah in 2006 - the party has gone on to entrench itself in Lebanese politics and is regarded as "heroic" by much of the Arab world - Israel is determined not to make the same mistake in 2008/09.
And while the conflict is taking place, experts are cautious at gauging its overall impact.
"Lebanon went through this two years ago, it was a similar Israeli attack provoked by similar circumstances, so there are varying opinions," Nadim Shehadi, associate fellow, Chatham House's Middle East and north Africa programme, told inthenews.co.uk.
"But when the battle is raging during an Israeli attack the discussion is postponed for later.
"After the action finishes there will be a discussion over whether this was Hamas' fault."
Mr Shehadi is among analysts dismissing the significance of western diplomatic missions in the Middle East, claiming that the "real hope" for ending Israeli military action in Gaza lies in the United Nations, where a resolution more than a month after the 2006 Lebanon war began brought about an end to the conflict.
Mr Shehadi admitted he was downbeat about the chances of a similar UN security council resolution anytime soon.
"Again like 2006, it took 33 days for the UN to move on this," he told inthenews.co.uk.
"But this time around I don't see how the Israelis are going to get out of this, they haven't announced any official objectives. They did in 2006, they announced their objectives and they came out defeated when they weren't completed.
"Here they have very limited objectives, but they haven't managed to fulfil them."
When asked whether the United States would continue to blackball the security council from issuing a resolution demanding a ceasefire until Israel had stopped Hamas rocket-fire, Mr Shehadi replied with the words "very obviously".
Hizbullah has predictably been one group to speak out in staunch defence of Hamas, with its leader Hassan Nasrallah using speeches to attack Egyptian mediators and insinuate that Cairo, along with Saudi Arabia and the Palestinian Authority leaders are "partners in crime" with Israel.
But initial fears Hizbullah would respond to Israeli aggression by launching an attack of its own have proved unfounded.
"I don't think they would have the popular support to do so, with Lebanon recovering from 2006 and a host of destroyed villages on the southern border," Mr Shehadi told inthenews.co.uk.
"Hizbullah is part of the Lebanese government now and also under Doha power-sharing agreement it is bound by certain clauses that prevent it from attacking Israel."
Mr Shehadi also gives short shrift to any connection between the current military action and the Israeli elections in February and the Lebanese elections in May.
"In the Middle East timing is always relevant, there is always something going on," he explained.
"When Hamas resumed rocket-fire against Israel it was certain that Israel would respond. But the debate about the responsibility for this will happen later.
"You don't criticise Hamas while it is being attacked. Everybody is expecting solidarity with Hamas and condemnation of the attacks because of the brutality of it.
"The debate is postponed internally as well."
Mr Shehadi, who ultimately thinks that Hamas' actions will see support for it swell, says significant repercussions will be felt by Israel's neighbours.
"There will be deep consequences for Egypt, previously regarded as the leader of the Arab world, the leader of Arab nationalism playing a pivotal role," he said.
The end of a six-month truce brokered by Cairo on December 19th was immediately marked by Hamas rocket-fire that sparked the current Israeli presence in Gaza, but Mr Shehadi sees Egypt's status as a mediator under threat.
"Here Egypt looks very weak, it looks like it is not doing anything to pressurise Israel," he said.
"It is under heavy attack by Syria and radical elements as being an Israeli collaborator, threatening its role as the mediator between the Palestinian factions."
Nadim Shehadi was talking to Matthew Champion