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 30 August 2008 04:51 BST

US - exit Clinton

Sunday, 08 Jun 2008 09:07
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton

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Hillary Clinton was the favourite for the Democratic nomination long before Barack Obama emerged as her main challenger. Today, after months of fighting, she has finally conceded defeat.

The former first lady always had a tough time winning over the voters. Her campaign reminded the world of her grit and tenacity, but ultimately failed in the face of Mr Obama's fresh-faced youth. In 2006 and 2007 her frontrunner status seemed unassailable, but Mr Obama's insurgency eventually turned into a Democrat revolution. Perhaps that was always going to be the case.

A losing campaign

Mrs Clinton was playing catchup since the primary season opened on January 4th, when Iowa handed her a major setback. She may have taken New Hampshire the following week thanks to some well-timed tears, but was behind in the run-up to Super Tuesday and carried only eight states compared to Mr Obama's 13.

Hindsight can be a fine thing, of course. In retrospect the Illinois senator's run of victories after Super Tuesday looks decisive. But it was spectacularly ended by Clinton wins in Ohio and Texas and the ding-dong battle which followed did not seem to indicate which would eventually emerge on top. Wyoming and Mississippi went Mr Obama's way, but Mrs Clinton's nine-point margin in Pennsylvania showed she was still in the contest.

It was only as April turned to May that the momentum slowly shifted towards Mr Obama. Talk of superdelegates rejecting Mrs Clinton's 'electability' grew and grew until, eventually, the final primaries took place in Montana and South Dakota. Even then, despite Mr Obama passing the finishing line, she refused to give up. Only now has she handed in the presidential towel after a mammoth struggle.

Damage limitation

What caused her defeat? With so little policy differences between the pair the contest was inevitably one of personalities. But even the main difference between them – a black man versus a white woman – may not have proved crucial. Instead, perhaps inevitably in such a drawn-out campaign, it may have come down to who managed to minimise the inevitable gaffes best.

Mrs Clinton spent most of the time before Super Tuesday on the attack. On December 5th she criticised Mr Obama's lack of experience, saying "this is not a job you can learn about from a book". She jumped on the suggestion Mr Obama had plagiarised sections of a speech. Her campaign team allegedly even leaked a photograph of Mr Obama wearing traditional African dress. Mr Obama, unsurprisingly, was appalled.

Splits within her campaign team began to emerge as spring approached. Unfortunately chosen remarks about race from Geraldine Ferraro cost her a senior staffer in March. Less than a month later long-term adviser Mark Penn, her chief strategist, was forced to step down.

Mr Obama's staff has proved more cohesive. They may have failed to prevent his pastor, Reverend Jeremiah Wright, racially slurring Ms Clinton, but managed to keep Mr Obama in check. His worse mistake was calling a female reporter "sweetie". That seems the sort of scandalous behaviour grassroot Democrats can cope with.

Advantage McCain

Republicans have spent the last three months watching the Clinton-Obama struggle with glee. Their candidate, John McCain, wrapped up the nomination on March 4th after emerging as the frontrunner on Super Tuesday. He has spent the intervening months building his profile, stealing a start on the general campaign. His supporters say the Democrats are hopelessly divided as a result. With speculation now turning to whether Mr Obama will accept Ms Clinton as his running mate, or whether she will begin 2009 as majority leader in the Senate, that may be the case.

At least one senior Democrat thinks otherwise. Sandy Berger, national security adviser to the (Bill) Clinton administration from 1997 to 2001, told a Chatham House audience in London he thinks the Democrats' "overwhelming desire to regain the White House" will override whatever "lingering anger" survives from the primary season.

"This has been a long, intensive, personal and sometimes bitter campaign. It has not been about the issues – it's been about personalities, race, gender," he said.

"Ultimately, though, we're at a moment in history not seen at any time since the second world war – the issues we face pose almost existential problems to our survival."

Americans' frustration with George Bush's administration has been "fuelling demand for change", he says. But John McCain – who Mr Berger admits could easily win over many floating voters – stands in the way. Mr Obama's attention is already turning to November 4th. For him, the race is only just beginning.

Alex StevensonEnd of story


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