China facing chronic disease timebomb
100 million Chinese men will die of smoking-related causes by 2050, scientists forecast
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Tuesday, 21, Oct 2008 08:30
If present smoking trends continue, 100 million Chinese men will die of smoking-related causes between 2000 and 2050, scientists have forecast.
The prediction comes from researchers from leading Chinese and American universities. Chinese men comprise one-third of the world's smoking population and this is only a partial contributor to China's chronic disease problem.
"Dietary fat and salt intake, smoking, and lack of physical activity must all be targeted," conclude contributing authors to the Lancet Series on Health System Reform.
The intense emergence of chronic disease has caused improvements in China's life-expectancy to plateau since 1990. A drastic increase – over 25 per cent of the proportion of all deaths – in the fatalities caused by various forms of cancer, cerebro-cardiovascular disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease has occurred since 1973.
Another massive increase in daily levels of fat has been detected in Chinese diets between 1982 and 2002, nearly 100 per cent in rural people and 25 per cent in urban people, thereby intensifying the risk for cardiovascular disease and cancer. At the same time dietary cereal levels have decreased and meat consumption and obesity levels are on the rise.
The devastating rise in chronic disease is attributed to such risky behaviour, in addition to the fact that China's population is ageing thanks to pre-1990 improvements to life-expectancy.
While smoking is not such a problem with Chinese women, based on social taboos on the matter, other unhealthy habits negatively impact the entire population.
"Prevention must be at the heart of the China's battle with chronic diseases if it is to stop the health and economic timebomb associated with these conditions," the authors write.
Reforms including education about the health risks associated with smoking and a national salt-intake reduction campaign have been strongly encouraged by the authors of the Lancet study.
"Just as China was able to control infectious diseases within a shorter time than other countries, it has the opportunity today to reduce the time over which chronic diseases take a high health and economic toll in the country." This toll is indeed a serious concern for the country, but the praise that was "fittingly showered on Beijing for running a smoke-free Olympics", is seen to be a helpful step in the right direction.