2008: The pessimists got it right
No relief from Darfur suffering
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Thursday, 25, Dec 2008 09:00
At the start of 2008 inthenews.co.uk gave positive and negative predictions for prospects in the world's hotspots.
Looking back at the way things were 12 months ago reveals some interesting - and ultimately depressing - trends in world affairs. Events, of course, have played their part in changing the world we live in. Unfortunately many of the most deep-seated problems have simply dragged on, with the international community struggling to come up with any real answers.
Darfur
This is nowhere the case more than in Sudan's wartorn Darfur region. After spending much of 2007 mustering up the political will for the deployment of a peacekeeping force, the UN spent much of 2008 wringing its hands about that force's failure.
Our pessimist's prediction was: "UN forces struggle to achieve mobility on the ground, limiting their effectiveness to end human rights violations, as member states shrink from making up the numbers required." That was more or less what occurred: equipment shortages in particular hampered Unamid's efforts. The refugee camps remain - and the international criminal court has yet to bring any of its named suspects to justice.
Iran and North Korea
Negotiations with the world's biggest nuclear headaches followed similar courses in 2008. Both started off positively: the US national intelligence estimate downplayed fears of pre-emptive military action against Iran, while Pyongyang appeared to be playing ball when it demolished its reactor at Yongbyon. Unfortunately it decided to start building it again as talks reached stalling point. And Iran's continued hardline approach led to fresh sanctions feared by inthenews one year ago. Two more defeats for the optimists.
Israel/Palestine
"Humanitarian crisis in Gaza Strip is alleviated as sanctions are lifted following either Hamas' capitulation or a change of international stance" was the optimistic viewpoint 12 months ago. Neither of these events occurred and, to make matters worse, the peace talks begun at Annapolis faltered. Ehud Olmert's premiership ended prematurely because of corruption allegations but Tzipi Livni could not muster a coalition together, meaning all bets are now off until after February.
Afghanistan
All the above saw much of the same in 2008. So did Afghanistan - but there was a real sense by the end of the year that the international community would have to do something about it. Essentially, here was yet another instance of the pessimists' triumph - "a steady trickle of coalition deaths with the seemingly unbeatable Taliban maintaining their mountain hideouts". The potential doubling of US forces in the country signalled hope of a sort - action necessitated, however, by actual advances by the Taliban from their mountain fastnesses.
Pakistan
Sudden change across the border in Pakistan may have also contributed to the growing feeling of urgency about the situation. 2008 was a year of extraordinary upheaval for Pakistan, beginning with the turmoil following the assassination of opposition figurehead Benazir Bhutto and continuing with the collapse of the coalition government in Islamabad. Somewhere in there Pervez Musharraf was forced to resign from the presidency. Pakistan was "on the brink" at the start of the year. It still is.
Iraq
In the middle of these setbacks the biggest single generator of depressing headlines in 2007 came good a year later. US president George Bush's troop surge lowered levels of violence and the security situation finally began to improve. The planned withdrawal of British troops and handover of many previously troublesome provinces showed the country's government beginning to reassert itself. Too late, perhaps, but better late than never.
Alex Stevenson