Pakistan News Story

05 December 2008 10:53 BST

Pakistan: Life after Musharraf

Pervez Musharraf's resignation leaves a big hole in Pakistani politics – one which analysts expect the west will look to the military to fill.

The former army chief's exit from the presidency after nine years of rule, for better or worse, leaves the country's coalition government facing an uncertain future. It faces internal squabbles which, analysts say, could risk it failing to deal with the western priority – the war on terror.

Until now the situation was relatively harmonious, thanks to their one unifying goal: pursuing the undemocratic Mr Musharraf's downfall. Asif Zardari, husband of the late Pakistan People's party leader Benazir Bhutto, played the perfect hand in this respect, Farzana Shaikh of Chatham House believes. She says his recruitment of political rival Nawaz Sharif to the coalition fold was a "something of a masterstroke".

"Mr Zardari… understood from the start that Mr Sharif only had one intention – to oust Musharraf from power," she told inthenews.co.uk. "Although Mr Sharif had hoped to do so by restoring the chief justice… it seemed easier to press the impeachment."

Soon after the launch of formal proceedings Mr Musharraf stepped down on August 18th. The move was expected, Ms Shaikh says; but the circumstances might have been in more glorious circumstances. "I love Pakistan," he repeated, insisting he was a human being underneath it all. Mr Musharraf might not be missed by many. But his disappearance from the political scene robs the west of one of its most important political allies in the region. The future for the war on terror is cloudy.

It is up to the coalition government to get its act together, analysts believe. The spotlight now falls squarely on its performance in the coming months, which will be hampered by failure to resolve its differences. Ongoing division will prevent Pakistan from starting to pick up the pieces from Mr Musharraf's shattered legacy. This is far from straightforward, many fear, for the PPP and Mr Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (N) are uneasy bedfellows. Like Nato after the fall of the Soviet Union, they need to find a new raison d'etre.

Kristina Kazmi of research firm Global Insight is among those who believe the new political landscape of Pakistan holds grounds for concern. "Musharraf's departure has left a power vacuum – we will probably see the PPP and PML-N fighting over who fills that hole. There will be continued instability," she says.

Ms Kazmi and Ms Shaikh foresee a number of hurdles the government must get past before dealing with the wider issues. First among them is selecting Mr Musharraf's successor. Mr Zarafari is rumoured to be interested in the job, but Mr Sharif would refuse such a move if it is not stripped down to a purely ceremonial role. Perhaps sacked chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry might be in the running. That, too, is fraught with difficulty; it is caught up with the issue of whether to reinstate the judges sacked by Mr Musharraf last November. Shrewd punters might do worse than look to a compromise candidate from Baluchistan as a result. Whoever it is the concern is that the coalition government, "occupied with itself", might let the opportunity to deal with Pakistan's bigger problems pass by.

That is of concern to the west. Number one on the list is the security situation, which has deteriorated steadily since Mr Musharraf's disastrous response to the Red Mosque siege in Islamabad last summer. Over 100 'martyrs' died in the army's blunt crackdown, ending a ten-month-old ceasefire with tribal militants. The human cost has been horrific. And it has wider implications for the region – with Afghanistan affected in particular.

The autonomous mountainous regions are harbouring Taliban fighters, frustrating coalition efforts across the border. After years of frustration the west is now expected to pile the pressure on Pakistan's new chief of army staff, General Ashfaq Kiyani. He will come under "increasing pressure from the US to step up the war on terror", Ms Shaikh predicts. Ms Kazmi says the UK's interests are closely related. "The UK's terror threat stems by and large from Pakistan and British nationals of Pakistani origin."

That explains why foreign secretary David Miliband's statement following Mr Musharraf's resignation is so concerned in its tone. Britain likes "strong institutions", not "strong individuals", he said. That's why the responsibilities of Pakistan's leaders are so "significant". Mr Miliband pleaded of the civilian government: "They need to come together to ensure that the recently elected government carries forward an economic and security agenda consistent with the long-term interests of the Pakistani people."

For now, though that dialogue with the civilian government will continue, analysts say the main focus must be with the army. "There is no one trusted leader that's emerging on the horizon for the west," Ms Kazmi explains. "So I think the US and UK are going to initially turn to the military to provide some sort of leadership."

It's understandable that London, Washington and the rest are nervy about the uncertain situation. They would love democracy to work well. But their pragmatism is compelling, Ms Kazmi argues. "Democracy in this part of the world is skin-deep," she explains. In Cambodia, "if the tables ever turned [the government] would crack down on the opposition". That is already happening with sodomy charges discrediting the opposition leader in Malaysia. And Singapore, again, is an example of a democracy dominated by one party.

Western governments have a lot of experience dealing with the political cultures of south-east Asia. Pakistan is no different from the west. The US, UK and all have their own agendas which need to be met. In purely practical terms, the only way their priority of security in Afghanistan can be met is through help from the Pakistani military.

"Fundamentally they do want to see a democratic Pakistan but the truth of the matter is we have this problem of radicalisation – and the people who pull the strings are the military."

Alex Stevenson