World News Story

05 December 2008 10:23 BST

Afghanistan – a traditional war

Six years after coalition forces ousted the Taliban from power in Afghanistan, the country's progress towards reconstruction and political unity has been disappointing. InTheNews.co.uk's Alex Stevenson assesses Afghanistan's fortunes since the 2001 invasion.

The dominant Taliban

Ten years ago, Afghanistan was a very different place. The various tribes and warlords who had united together to drive the invading Soviets out of the country in the 1980s found they could not unite among themselves by 1997.

A bitter civil war followed with the Taliban, a group of scholarly radical Islamists, slowly emerging triumphant. By 2000 they were estimated to control 90 per cent of the country.

Already vilified by the international community, a pivotal moment in the country's history came in September 2001 when al-Qaida launched its devastating attacks upon the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon.

The Taliban were charged with harbouring al-Qaida leader Osama Bin Laden but responded by rebuffing all diplomatic efforts.

A UN report entitled The Deepening Crisis highlighted the growing humanitarian crisis faced by the country. US-led attacks on the Taliban led the way for opposition tribes to drive them out of power by the end of the year.

Cautious optimism

In December 2001 an International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) was established to try to help the country move towards a prosperous post-Taliban future.

Initial efforts proved moderately successful, with reports of significant improvements in the security situation by 2002. But matters began to slide by 2003, with some attributing the failing policy to insufficient aid being received by the country.

Meanwhile, in 2002, Hamid Karzai had been appointed head of an interim government by a constitutional Loya Jirga (Council of Elders). Although endowed with strong powers the body which appointed him remained somewhat divided; Nato forces assuming command of Isaf in 2003 were required to fill the power vacuum as much as they were to train and build Afghan national security forces.

Mr Karzai won a presidential election in late 2004; the margin of his victory proved sufficient to overcome doubts about the questionable elections themselves.

A backward step

By the following spring Afghanistan's security situation had taken a downward turn, however. Reports that the Taliban were reforming in southern parts of the country, as well as along the mountainous border with Pakistan, helped push along the implementation of the expansion of Nato's role in the theatre.

Last summer and autumn a series of offensives took place against Taliban strongholds throughout the country. The operations confirmed the suspicions of many military analysts: that the situation in the country had descended into what was, in conventional terms, nothing short of all-out war.

Towns, even villages, could not be vacated by Isaf forces without the Taliban quickly reappearing. Front lines appeared. Soldiers complained that they did not have sufficient resources to win their battles.

By October last year Nato forces were in command of the entire country for the first time. Reports emerged over the new year period that the Taliban were planning an offensive of their own in the spring.

Over six years since the Isaf's mission, "to facilitate the reconstruction of the country and to assist in expanding the influence of the central government", it often seems as if little progress has been made.

June-July 2007

Coalition forces brought the fight to the Taliban in the summer of 2007, launching yet another offensive operation against militants in the southern Helmand province region.

The fighting has already claimed several British lives but US president George Bush remained bullish about the situation on the ground. Speaking alongside Afghan president Hamid Karzai at Camp David on August 6th, he said: "You might remember it was last winter that people were speculating about the Taliban spring offensive, and about how the Taliban had regrouped and were going to go on the attack inside Afghanistan.

"There was a spring offensive, all right - it was conducted by US, NATO and, equally importantly, Afghan troops."

August-September 2007

A group of South Korean Christian missionaries attracted the headlines throughout August when they were abducted in Ghazni province, as they made their way from Kandahar to Kabul on July 19th.

Two were shot dead but the remainder were released as the result of strenuous talks between South Korean government negotiators and Taliban representatives.

As images of the ashamed hostages professing sorrow for their behaviour were broadcast across Asia following the final releases on August 30th, analysts began to assess the significance of their release.

South Korean authorities were forced to agree to the complete withdrawal of their 200 troops and all South Korean missionaries and other civilians from Afghanistan for a deal to be brokered.

Experts feared that because the Taliban achieved political gain from their hostage-taking – as occurred in April when Italian journalist Daniele Mastrogiacomo was freed in return for five prisoners – they are much more likely to attempt similar abductions again.

September-October 2007

There were few signs of progress in the struggle against the Taliban this autumn.

On September 30th the militant group scorned a peace offer by Afghan president Hamid Karzai, dismissing negotiation while foreign troops remained in the country.

The International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) laboured on, but was unable to stop bombs killing 12 in Kabul on October 2nd, 27 just outside the city on September 29th and a US soldier and five civilians back in the city on October 6th.

Isaf even managed some bad publicity of its own, facing accusations from Amnesty International of exposing detainees to torture by handing them over to the Afghan government's intelligence service.

Meanwhile leaders continued to snipe about under-resourced soldiers. UK soldiers are well-known as being stretched in the country, but prime minister Gordon Brown made clear he believes western nations are not contributing enough generally.

One leader who knows a thing or two about reconstructing underdeveloped wartorn countries gave his extremely downcast judgment on the situation on October 24th.

"We have lost, I think, and success is now unlikely," former Liberal Democrat leader Lord Ashdown said.

"Some people refer to the first and second world wars as European civil wars and I think a similar regional civil war could be initiated by this [failure] to match this magnitude."