Russia – a new cold war?
Monday, 30 Jun 2008 00:00
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Vladimir Putin passes on a complicated foreign policy legacy to his anointed successor Dmitry Medvedev.
The former KGB officer has adopted an increasingly bullish stance against perceived western military advances in the final years of his presidency.
A whole host of objections have riled western diplomats in recent months, leading analysts to suggest Russia is rediscovering the assertiveness it advanced in the cold war.
International criticism
The world's image of Russia took a major step backwards in the aftermath of Alexander Litvinenko's death on November 23rd 2006. From his deathbed Mr Litvinenko accused Mr Putin of personal responsibility from his radiation poisoning-induced demise; the rancour eventually resulted in tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions between London and Moscow the following summer.
As the Litvinenko affair rumbled on western leaders criticised Russia's increasingly anti-democratic behaviour. German chancellor Angela Merkel took Mr Putin to task over a plot to prevent opposition figurehead Garry Kasparov from a May 2007 EU summit in Samara. And US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice voiced her "concerns" about the country's human rights record in October.
December 2nd's parliamentary elections attracted more concern, with monitors declaring the polls took place in an atmosphere which "seriously limited political competition" – to the dismay of foreign governments.
UK foreign secretary David Miliband even accused Russia of "cold war behaviour" as it forced the closure of British Council offices in St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg in January.
Russia's sphere of influence
Criticism from abroad has not stopped the Kremlin advancing its efforts to influence events in eastern Europe and central Asia.
Relations with Georgia hit a new low after Tbilisi accused Russia of violating Georgian airspace and loosing an unexploded missile on August 7th.
January 2007's row over pipeline fees with Belarus was followed with a similar standoff a year later with Ukraine, with agreement only reached after Mr Putin judged he was "satisfied" a $1.5 billion (£770 million) debt would be paid.
A quieter diplomatic offensive is underway in the Balkans. As the EU's support for Kosovo's independence resulted in its isolation from the Serbian government, Russia's Gazprom was announcing plans to build a new pipeline in the country and backing Belgrade's opposition to the secession.
Defence irritations
Commentators say Russia's active efforts to influence eastern Europe and other areas of interest to it are reflected in its frantic concerns about western advances in its periphery.
Mr Putin spent much of 2008 complaining about Nato's expansion into Afghanistan, objecting to its eastward advance from intervention in the Balkans to central Asia.
He has also been persistently opposed to a US defence missile system planned for eastern Europe. The US insists its silos are intended as a defensive missile shield against the Middle East but Russia fears the installations in the Czech Republic and Poland could be used offensively.
May 2007 saw Mr Putin warn American "imperialism" would prompt a new arms race.
In October he said the situation was "technologically… very similar" to the 1963 Cuban missile crisis.
And on February 8th this year he said "retaliatory steps" were necessary, including a modernisation of Russia's arms and weapons.
Preparing for confrontation
Fears are growing among analysts that Russia is demonstrating a worrying commitment to investing in military force to boost its bargaining power around the world.
On September 12th the military revealed what it described as the "father of all bombs", a vacuum bomb which creates a pressure wave, temperature and blast area comparable to that of a nuclear weapon.
That came just a week after RAF bombers were scrambled to head off advancing bombers. Russian bombers had resumed long-range bomber patrols for the first time since a post-Soviet suspension in 1992.
Worse still was the Russian withdrawal from the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty. As a result Russian troop and weaponry movements became no longer bound to Nato reporting rules, a move defence analysts lamented as bad news for European security.
Putin's legacy
Demonstrations of military power work as a pressing reminder that Russian interests on the world stage – especially in eastern Europe and central Asia – should not be taken lightly.
Mr Medvedev, a close ally of Mr Putin, was chosen by Russians as their next president on March 2nd, with the former first deputy prime minister taking 70 per cent of the vote.
The vote was marred by allegations of electoral fraud, but that made very little difference by May 7th when Mr Medvedev took office in a lavish ceremony at the Kremlin.
He is not expected to change Russia's antagonising course with the rest of the world, despite Mr Putin's last-minute deals with US president George Bush.
Apart from anything else the now ex-president has secured his own ongoing political prominence by becoming chairman of the ruling United Russia party, as well as Mr Medvedev's hugely influential prime minister.
Ultimately, though, none of Russia's major grievances are likely to be addressed during his first year in power. A continuation of the Kremlin's current policies can be expected as a result.
Alex Stevenson
Update – July 2008
Mr Medvedev has kept a fairly low profile of late and Russia has mainly kept out of the headlines since he came to power in May as a result.
That did not stop members of the House of Lords condemning its policy of closing British Council offices in Russia outside Moscow last year.
The Russian president broke his cover on June 7th, blaming the US for the current global economic turmoil caused by the credit crunch.
"It is precisely the gap between the US' formal role in the world economy and its real capabilities that was one of the key reasons for the current crisis," he told delegates at a summit of business executives in St Petersburg.
"Russia is a global player. We understand our responsibility for the fate of the world and want to participate in forming the rules of the game, not because of so-called imperial ambitions, but because ... we have the resources."