The quarter-finals: A preview
Even the Argentinean players have been surprised by their success
Also In The News
|
Penguin, November 1st, Hardback £10. |  |
Thursday, 04, Oct 2007 11:47
The quarter-finals of the World Cup have thrown up some mouth-watering, if slightly predictable, clashes.
Argentina's form and the shock departures of Ireland and Wales have been the talking points of the tournament so far, but we now enter the business end of the competition and all that has gone before counts for nothing.
Focusing on each game in turn and trying to predict the results, it is easy to see why every team still in the competition, apart from perhaps the Scots, will believe they have a chance of lifting the trophy in three weeks time.
QF1: Australia vs England (Marseille)
Australia will go into this game as firm favourites to progress, with most pundits giving defending champions England little hope.
Whilst Australia have been in bullish form in their group games, demonstrating little difficulty in overcoming potentially tricky opponents such as Wales and Fiji, England have stuttered through the competition and are yet to find anything approaching top form.
The 2003 champions will warmly welcome the return from injury of Jason Robinson at full-back, with Josh Lewsey moving to the wing at the expense of Mark Cueto. Captain Phil Vickery is re-instated in the starting line-up and will aim to help England's pack dominate the Australian's apparent weaker set-up.
One man with enormous pressure on his shoulders will be England centre Andy Farrell, who has the unenviable task of lining up opposite Matt Giteau, a player in ominous form. Farrell has been much criticised throughout his rugby union career as many believe he has failed to live up to his outstanding league form. But a try against Tonga last weekend and his sizeable figure have made him Brian Ashton's first choice to combat Australia's imposing centres.
Lewis Moody is another player who will have his hands full, entrusted with taking on brilliant flanker George Smith.
Then there is the small matter of England's fly-half and all the history that comes with the two teams' last encounter in a World Cup. However Jonny Wilkinson has yet to really shine in this tournament and his kicking was uncharacteristically off in the Tonga game.
Wilkinson and England fans everywhere will know that he will have to be on top of his game if England are to have any chance of winning this game. His opposite number is likely to be Berrick Barnes, with Stephen Larkham still sidelined with injury, and the match-up is going to be crucial to both teams.
With such an enormous rivalry and with all the pre-game baiting, the match should prove to be a classic encounter. Whether the defending champions can repeat their performance in Sydney four years ago seems unlikely, but with Wilkinson on your side, you never know. Could they? Will they? In fairness, most probably not.
QF2: New Zealand vs France (Cardiff)
This is not exactly what the organisers had in mind when the fixture lists were drawn up before the competition. French fans are rightly incensed at the fact that they have to play the biggest game of their World Cup against the tournament's clear favourites in Wales, at a World Cup they are supposed to be hosting.
It would be fair to say no one saw this as a potential quarter-final, as France were expected to dominate their group and cruise to the semi-finals. Instead they are faced with a much greater task.
For the neutrals this will be the first clash of two genuine heavyweights in the World Cup (England against South Africa had plenty of hype but the result was pretty much a foregone conclusion). France will be hoping to recreate the 1999 World Cup semi-final at Twickenham when they overcame the much-vaunted All Blacks 43-31 in what some describe as the best game of rugby ever and certainly one of the biggest upsets.
New Zealand have been here before - overwhelming pre-tournament favourites, only to choke when it really matters.
They will be hoping to finally overcome this curse and live up to their potential. Their form thus far has been steady, although the group stages provided no real tests and as a result they remain a slightly untested force.
Dan Carter's return at fly-half will be a huge boost but there is no place for their record try scorer, Doug Howlett, who somewhat surprisingly fails to even make it into the matchday 22.
French coach, Bernard Laporte has opted for the potentially risky tactic of playing Lionel Beauxis at fly half and centre Damien Traille at full-back for the first time in his career. Laporte maintains the ploy is to counter the Kiwis' kicking game. Time will tell. The bench potentially holds the key to defeating New Zealand, Frederic Michalak and Sebastien Chabal will be itching to get on the park at some stage in the game.
The game has the potential to be the defining match of the tournament. France never expected to be in this position and New Zealand no doubt did not expect to face such a tough match this early on.
France have the talent to cause an upset but you feel that playing 'away' at their own tournament, and after the disappointing loss to Argentina, they just won't be able to contain New Zealand's raw power and pace.
QF3: South Africa vs Fiji (Marseille)
'Why didn't he run it in under the posts?' Welsh fans may be saying when watching this game.
Had Martyn Williams crossed under the posts for his try with less than ten minutes to go against Fiji, and had the conversion been successful, it may well have been Wales lining up against the Springboks.
Instead it is Fiji, and fresh from one of the biggest upsets in World Cup rugby and undoubtedly their greatest ever achievement, they will be seriously up for this game. Another upset is exactly what they'll be after and they will believe they can achieve it.
South Africa will also be feeling confident and with the draw as it is now, will have the final already in their minds.
Apart from a slight wobble against Tonga, the Springboks have looked mighty impressive, easily dispatching reigning champions England 36-0 in the defining match of their pool.
A New Zealand-South Africa final was many people's prediction before the tournament and there is little to suggest South Africa will not be holding up their end of the bargain. Bryan Habana will once again be the danger man in the backs but it will be the pack where South Africa will look to dominate. They will hope to use their superior strength and discipline with the ball in hand to counter Fiji's free-flowing rugby.
A relatively straight forward task for South Africa and one they will likely complete with the aplomb we have come to expect from them in this competition so far.
QF4: Argentina vs Scotland (Stade de France, Paris)
Who would have thought it? First France were defeated in their first game and then Ireland - some pundits' outside bets for the World Cup - were knocked out without so much as whimper.
Argentina have undoubtedly been the surprise package this year. No one gave them much hope of getting through the 'group of death' that was pool D. Not with France hosting the tournament and Ireland in such apparent good form. Certainly no one thought they would win the group, and not just win it but deservedly finish on top.
Argentina have played, hands down, some of the best rugby so far.
Their scrum-half and skipper, Agustin Pichot, is playing in his fourth World Cup and has been in inspirational form for the Pumas. Outside him, fly-half Juan Martin Hernandez's left- and right-footed drop-goals effectively took the game away from Ireland last week and with the Contepomi brothers in the centres, Argentina's backs look very impressive.
Top points-scorer Felipe Contepomi will apparently have to pass a late fitness test but seems likely to start.
In comparison Scotland have had a completely uneventful World Cup. The highlights include a two-point victory over Italy and a second-string XV preventing New Zealand from scoring more than 40 points against them. They would have bitten your arm off for a quarter-final against Argentina before the competition, but now that prospect does not seem quite so inviting. The last encounter between the two was a 23-19 victory for the Pumas at Murrayfield in 2005 and there is little to suggest that the same outcome will not occur again.
Head coach Frank Hadden was full of praise for Chris Paterson's kicking game after Scotland's victory over Italy and they will hope for more of the same if they are to beat everyone's new second-favourite team.
Argentina will go into the game full of confidence and it will take an almighty effort by Scotland to prevent them from marching into the semi-finals.
Argentina in the semi-finals of a World Cup? This is rugby, right, not football? Apparently so, and the tournament is all the better for it.
Conclusion:
England fans may rue the day they lost to South Africa and sacrificed a relatively straightforward route to the final and the chance to retain their title.
Instead England's reign as world champions looks set to come to a shuddering halt at the hands of their fiercest rivals.
Hosts France face a huge task in the form of hot favourites New Zealand and this game stands to be the pick of the tournament so far. A packed and passionate Stade de France would have been a huge boost for the host nation, but playing instead at the Millennium Stadium and after their performance against Argentina on the opening day the 'home side' will most likely struggle to contain the dominant All Blacks.
South Africa's fans can effectively book their final tickets already. Fiji will provide a useful opponent but over 80 minutes there is only one clear winner and the Springboks will be loving the way the draw has been put together.
Argentina will see off Scotland to complete the semi-finals and they won't half fancy themselves against South Africa.
Southern hemisphere teams in the semi-finals is hardly earth-shattering news, but all four teams from south of the equator? Not many would have predicted that before the first match of the World Cup but it would be great for rugby as a global sport if the unfancied Pumas could go all the way to the final.
Now that really would be a fairy-tale ending.
Richard James