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 05 July 2008 03:48 BST

Summer rain to be a thing of the past, report shows

Friday, 02 May 2008 15:44
New study predicts drier summers with dramatic drop in summer rain

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A new study has revealed that drier summers could be on the way, with a dramatic drop in summer rain predicted.

Techniques pioneered by climate research scientists at the Met Office have revealed that average summer rainfall in northern Europe could decrease by between five and 20 per cent by the end of the century.

However, the results - which use Met Office Hadley Centre climate change simulation models - also point to the impact of greenhouse gas emissions, with average winter rainfall very likely to increase in the same period.

Dr James Murphy, head of climate prediction at the Met Office, said the findings - which will eventually be included in a November 2008 report for UK Climate Impacts Programme - were "a step forward" but should still be seen as preliminary.

"The science of probabilistic and ensemble climate prediction is still rather young but is growing quickly," he added.

"The Met Office is implementing further developments in the technique, which will provide a basis for the estimation of probabilities associated with different levels of future climate change."

Dr Vicky Pope, head of climate change for government at the Met Office Hadley Centre, said using multiple model climate change models allows for "far better management of risks than when only using one projection, and can inform policy in a far more comprehensive and meaningful way than was previously the case".

Similar research techniques have shown the effect of global warming on UK temperatures, with dangerous heat waves "likely to be commonplace" by 2040, according to the Met Office website.End of story


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