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 17 May 2008 23:05 BST

Polar bear research 'deeply flawed'

Friday, 09 May 2008 13:14
Report claiming global warming is threatening the polar bear population is "flawed"

Science In Focus 

Research to decide whether global warming is threatening the global polar bear population is "flawed", a new study has said.

A report being published later this year in the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences journal will claim research undertaken by the US department of the interior cannot be used to justify listing polar bears as an endangered species.

On April 30th, a US judge ordered the department of the interior to decide by May 15th whether the polar bear should be listed as endangered.

"To list a species that is currently in good health as an endangered species requires valid forecasts that its population would decline to levels that threaten its viability," professor J Scott Armstrong said.

"In fact, the polar bear populations have been increasing rapidly in recent decades due to hunting restrictions. Assuming these restrictions remain, the most appropriate forecast is to assume that the upward trend would continue for a few years, then level off.

"These studies are meant to inform the US fish and wildlife service about listing the polar bear as endangered. After careful examination, my co-authors and I were unable to find any references to works providing evidence that the forecasting methods used in the reports had been previously validated," Professor Armstrong added.

"In essence, they give no scientific basis for deciding one way or the other about the polar bear."

Professor Armstrong and his colleagues claim the reports carried out by the US geological survey (USGS) "do not adequately substantiate the authors' assumptions about changes to sea ice and polar bears' ability to adapt that are key to the recommendations".

They therefore conclude that the USGS' recommendations are not scientifically supported. End of story

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