Mass extinctions predicted
Wednesday, 24 Oct 2007 09:43
Over 50 per cent of species could be wiped out if temperatures rise as predicted
Science In Focus
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Mass extinctions of plant and animal species in the coming centuries are likely as temperatures rise with climate change, scientists have warned.
They believe that over 50 per cent of species could be wiped out if temperatures rise as predicted.
Researchers from York and Leeds universities base their warning on a study of the relationship between climate and extinctions over the past 520 million years.
They matched data of species on land and in the seas against temperature estimates.
This study showed that global diversity is low and extinctions high during warm phases (greenhouse phases) while the reverse is true during cooler periods (icehouse phases).
Writing in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B, the researchers argue that future predicted temperatures are within the range of greenhouse phases linked to mass extinctions in the fossil record.
Greenhouse phases in the past wiped out species including dinosaurs. Earth's worst mass extinction came during the End-Permian period about 251 million years ago, when 95 per cent of all species became extinct.
Lead researcher Dr Peter Mayhew said: "Our results provide the first clear evidence that global climate may explain substantial variation in the fossil record in a simple and consistent manner.
"If our results hold for current warming - the magnitude of which is comparable with the long-term fluctuations in Earth's climate - they suggest that extinctions will increase."