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 06 July 2008 03:35 BST

Fewer hurricanes and tropical storms predicted

Tuesday, 20 May 2008 08:40
There were be fewer hurricanes under global warming, scientists predict

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There will be fewer hurricanes and tropical storms because of global warming by the end of the 21st century, scientists have claimed.

The researchers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) base their predictions on a regional climate model study of the Atlantic basin.

Their predicted fall in tropical storms and hurricanes conflicts with the argument that climate change will drive an increase in frequency of the weather events.

However, the study also found that there will be a substantial increase in rainfall associated with hurricanes and tropical storms.

The researchers used a regional model of the Atlantic Ocean basin that was designed for the simulation of hurricanes and that reproduces the observed increase in hurricane frequency between 1980 and 2006.

They then used climate model projections for the end of the 21st century to drive this model.

Writing in the journal Nature Geoscience, the researchers say they found a decrease in hurricane frequency but an increase in rainfall associated with hurricanes and tropical storms.

"Our results do not support the notion of large increasing trends in either tropical storm or hurricane frequency driven by increases in atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations," they commented.

The researchers argue the model supports the hypothesis that the main cause of the recent increase in Atlantic hurricane numbers was the warming of the tropical Atlantic Ocean relative to the other tropical ocean basins.
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