Hung parliament likely, new poll suggests
Hung parliament likely at next general election, new poll suggests
Tuesday, 01, Dec 2009 01:30
By Elizabeth Davies
A new poll carried out by ComRes for the Independent is the second in two weeks to suggest that Britain is heading for a hung parliament after the next general election.
In some good news for Labour, the Conservative lead has narrowed to ten points. If this result is translated into seats under the first past the post electoral system, the Conservatives would be six seats away from an overall majority.
The ComRes poll shows a fall in support for the Conservatives, putting them on 37 per cent - a three-point drop on last month's poll. Labour remains on 27 per cent, while the Liberal Democrats have improved their position by two points to 20 per cent.
If these positions were maintained at the polls, the Conservatives would win 320 seats - six short of a majority - while Labour would win only 240. In such a situation, the remaining seats held by other parties could make them kingmakers of the next government.
Labour will see these results as an indication that their fortunes are turning, and a sign that there is still a possibility of beating the Conservatives at the next general election.
Voters appear increasingly positive about the state of the economy, with 56 per cent saying they were "optimistic" about the economy's prospects over the next 12 months. Labour voters were particularly upbeat: 74 per cent endorsed such optimism. Gordon Brown will have to hope that such confidence is not unfounded.
One person eagerly anticipating a hung parliament is Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader. If neither Labour nor the Conservatives manage to win an overall majority, his party would be decisive as a coalition partner.
In a blow to Labour, Mr Clegg announced in November that in the event of a hung parliament he would support "whichever party have the strongest mandate from the British people". This leaves open the possibility of a governing coalition created between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, should Labour fail to win a larger share of the country's votes.