Cancer death rates 'to slide'
Wednesday, 15 Oct 2008 08:12
Likelihood of dying from cancer before age of 84 will fall dramatically over next two decades, scientists predict
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The likelihood of dying from cancer before the age of 84 will fall dramatically over the next two decades, scientists have predicted.
A new study said death rates for the majority of cancer types are falling and would continue to do so for at least 20 years.
The Cancer Research UK report, published today in the British Journal of Cancer, looked at the rates of people dying from 21 of the most common types of cancer.
It predicted a decline of 17 per cent in men and 16 per cent in women between 2003 and 2023.
The researchers used past trends in death rates between 1970 and 2005 to project what cancer death rates are likely to be in the next 20 years.
Breast cancer – the most common cancer in the UK – has had the most significant fall in deaths since 1988 even though the number of people diagnosed has been increasing. The number of men dying from prostate cancer has also seen a drop of one per cent a year, despite the numbers being diagnosed rising by four per cent a year.
The researchers believe the reasons for the fall are early detection, better cancer treatments and a drop in the number of people smoking.
Professor Peter Sasieni, epidemiologist and study author, said there were two reasons behind the fall in cancer death rates.
"Firstly, the chance of developing cancer is getting lower as a result of lifestyle changes such as stopping smoking and better food hygiene," he explained.
"Secondly, more people are surviving cancer because, thanks to research, there are better treatments and more effective national screening programmes. And we're predicting that the fall in cancer deaths rates will continue in the next 20 years.
"Our study provides a benchmark against which we can measure the effect of new screening programmes and cancer treatments."
Researchers also found that several types of cancer, including liver cancer in men, would increase.
An ageing population and increasing evidence for some cancers meant there would overall be more cancer deaths in 2025 than 2005.
"We've already seen the impact of research in delivering cancer prevention, early detection and improved treatments," said Dr Lesley Walker, director of cancer information at Cancer Research UK.
"The projections for the next 20 years are really encouraging as they suggest a continuing decline in cancer death rates. The researchers have assumed that current trends will continue. However, we hope that with new developments, the drop in the risk of dying from cancer by 2025 will be even more dramatic."