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 12 May 2008 05:42 BST

Flu pandemic 'could be controlled until vaccine emerges'

Tuesday, 11 Mar 2008 00:01
Measures could help to control an outbreak of pandemic flu, researchers say

Health In Focus 

An outbreak of pandemic flu could be controlled if a number of measures are put in place until a vaccine is available, a new study claims.

US and UK researchers at three universities used mathematical and statistical methods to predict the affect of interventions on the natural course of infectious diseases.

They argue that prompt implementation of social-distancing measures and antiviral treatment would be affective at preventing a flu pandemic similar to that of 1918.

The study's lead author, Dr Elizabeth Halloran, said the research from all three universities found that an outbreak of pandemic flu could be mitigated if these measures were implemented quickly.

Computer models calculated the spread of influenza within a population similar to that of Chicago, with approximately 8.6 million people.

Scientists worked on the basis that this virtual community interacted as in real life and all three models were set up to have attack rate patterns similar to those of past US flu pandemics.

In the absence of any intervention, all three computer models produced similar illness-attack rates, ranging from nearly 47 per cent to nearly 60 per cent of the population.

The least stringent scenario used the parameters of interventions not being implemented until one per cent of the population had developed symptomatic influenza, schools being closed and only 60 per cent of clinical cases being treated with antivirals.

This scenario produced a reduction in influenza cases of between 83 per cent and 94 per cent.

"If one could achieve these levels of compliance, ascertainment and social distancing, then there is a possibility of considerably mitigating a pandemic until a vaccine was available," the researchers conclude.

The findings are published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
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