Economy to suffer during swine flu pandemic
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By Darren Estwick. |  |
Friday, 20, Nov 2009 12:02
School closures and sick days from work are likely to have more of an impact on the UK economy during the swine flu pandemic than the disease itself.
Writing in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) researchers said regardless of the severity of a swine flu pandemic, time of work and school could have serious implications on the economy.
They say having sufficient stocks of an effective vaccine will play a major role in mitigating the cost of a pandemic and planning for the pandemic must include both the health and economic effects.
The researchers said: "Fear induced behavioural changes or government sanctioned absences from work or school in response to a flu pandemic could have a substantial economic impact, and these losses may not be balanced by large health benefits."
The conclusion was reached by a team from the London School of Economics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and the University of Edinburgh, who used a computer model to estimate the potential impact of pandemic influenza on the UK economy.
The results show pandemic influenza itself, even a high fatality pandemic, would reduce gross domestic product by less than 4.5 per cent (around £70 billion).
"However, two factors will compound the disease's impact," say the authors.
"Firstly, a pandemic in the near future would impose additional strain on an economy that is already stretched by recession, exaggerating the effect of recession and slowing economic recovery.
"Secondly, school closures and prophylactic absenteeism, whether imposed by government or the result of fear of infection in the population, could greatly increase the economic impact of a pandemic while providing questionable health gains. Caution might therefore be advised in pursuing these policies except in exceptional circumstances."
The authors acknowledge the evidence base for these estimates is "highly imperfect", but they conclude balancing school closure against 'business as usual' and obtaining sufficient stocks of effective vaccine are more important factors in determining the economic impact of an influenza pandemic than is the disease itself.