Ukraine - looking both ways
Monday, 02 Jun 2008 00:00
Viktor Yushchenko is fighting to defend his position as president
Ukraine has declared independence six times in the last 90 years – now it is trying to finally break free from its large eastern neighbour.
Stuck between conflicting allegiances to Russia and western Europe, the eastern European state - culturally distinct but frequently dominated by Russia - never fully ended its natural dependence on Moscow after achieving its first non-communist president, Leonid Kuchma, in 1994.
Mr Kuchma found his presidency dominated by the need to shake off the powerful efforts of those wanting closer ties with Russia. Constitutional wranglings over the separated executive, legislative and judicial branches of government were a constant reminder of this struggle for stability.
When the time came for his successor to be elected in 2004 those problems had crystallised rather than melted away.
Domestic squabbles
Unfortunately for Ukraine, the close tussle for power between pro-western Viktor Yuschenko and pro-Russian rival Viktor Yanukovych led to accusations of vote-rigging in the 2004 poll.
The result was the Orange Revolution, which saw popular street protests against Mr Yanukovych's Party of Regions. Ukraine's supreme court eventually overturned his presidential victory, sweeping Mr Yuschenko to power, but he was forced to install his rival as prime minister after inconclusive parliamentary elections led to political deadlock.
Written guarantees that Mr Yanukovych would not reverse the market reforms and pro-western policies he had implemented were not enough to prevent the odd couple from falling out yet again. They eventually split and a constitutional power struggle ensued between Mr Yanukovych and Mr Yuschenko.
Ukrainians judged Mr Yushchenko to be the winner in September 2006, when parliamentary elections saw Mr Yanukovych lose his job. Having previously fired her from government Yulia Tymoshenko, whose party polled better than his, returned as prime minister. But their good times in power were not to last. A stream of presidential directives finally pushed Ms Tymoshenko too far, prompting her MPs to block him from addressing parliament by literally preventing him from reaching the podium. With the next presidential election coming up before the end of 2009 analysts say the focus on the short term is now on oneupmanship.
Breaking free
How will these domestic squabbles affect Ukraine's standing in the wider world? Mr Yushchenko brushed aside questions about his troublesome premier while on a visit to London last month, saying the country's headaches were "problems of institutions, not personalities". For now his focus is wholly European, seeking membership of the European Union and pleading outright for Nato membership.
The Party of Regions' 2006 parliamentary win certainly appeared to confirm Ukrainians' preference for an EU-oriented policy. Mr Yushchenko wants to build an "irreversible new political culture" and says his country has a right to join Nato. That stance is bound to rile Moscow, which has made clear its bitter opposition to Nato's slow-moving eastward expansion. "The only condition which could prove the sovereignty… of the country would be Ukraine enjoying a system of collective security," he told British officials at Chatham House in London, days after being blocked by Ms Tymoshenko's allies in Kiev. Whether Russia will let Ukraine wriggle out from its grip remains to be seen.
Kiev's ability to determine its own future, whoever is in power, may rest on the state of the economy. GDP per capita has grown from $1.3 billion in 2004 to over $3,000 this year, while 2007 saw 11 per cent growth in the industrial sector. Despite this progress there are concerns about inflation, which has already reached 12.7 per cent. Corruption is a keenly felt negative among foreign businesses and Mr Yushchenko admits agricultural policies have not been organised in the "appropriate way". Gathering stormclouds on the economic front should prove a headache for pro-Europeans in Kiev. An end to recent prosperity could prove crucial in determining the success of Ukraine's shift towards Brussels.
Alex Stevenson