Somalia – after the Islamists
Friday, 16 May 2008 00:00
The US has kept its involvment in the Somalian conflict to a minimum in recent years
Somalia is currently bogged down in a painful period of conflict following the ousting of Islamist militants from power in 2006.
Build-up to the December war
Bereft of central government since 1992, Somalia spent the opening years of the 21st century a divided, anarchic state. Warlords from the country's tribal areas vied for control and power. It was only in the second battle of Mogadishu in May 2006 that one power began to emerge – the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC).
This Islamist group controlled much of Somalia during the second half of 2006. The autonomous Puntland and Somaliland regions in the north remained free of their influence, while the weak transitional government of Somalia itself was confined to a handful of provinces in the south-west, centred around Baidoa.
The December war
Reports of troops from neighbouring Ethiopia massing on the border with Somalia brought the usual threats of retribution from the Islamists. After a deadline ran out on December 20th the Islamists attacked, opening the conflict as fighting broke out with government troops between Mogadishu and Baidoa on December 21st.
Troops loyal to the transitional government had struggled against the Islamists for much of the year in minor skirmishes and looked to be performing similarly in the early stages of fighting. But a decisive shift occurred when military reinforcements from Ethiopia flooded into Somalia, however, driving the Islamists back.
UIC militiamen were forced into a retreat back to Mogadishu on Boxing Day and by December 28th were in the process of abandoning the capital, retreating to their last stronghold of Kismayo in the country's extreme south.
A new instability
Pursuing Ethiopian troops forced the Islamists out of Kismayo on New Year's Day, beginning a new era for Somalia.
Despite the first open intervention against the Islamists by the US, who bombed a Somali village on January 8th, the UIC remnants vowed to continue their fight.
Somali president Abdullahi Yusuf brokered a peace agreement with a number of warlords, convincing them to step down from their anti-establishment stance and contribute their militiamen to the national army.
But while this was a major achievement, the threatened insurgency centering on Mogadishu began to unfold as feared.
January-April 2007: The insurgency begins
Dozens died in the Somali capital during the first two months of 2007. Armed clashes gradually increased "in frequency and intensity", according to the International Committee of the Red Cross, leading hundreds to flee the city to avoid the fighting.
In response the African Union approved a force of 8,000 peacekeepers in February, mainly made up of Ugandan troops. With the remnants of the Ethiopian forces who had forced out the UIC in the new year they faced the task of ensuring security in the capital.
Their presence failed to prevent the outbreak of two major periods of violence in March and April. Mogadishu was hit by three days of fierce fighting at the end of March, as insurgents roamed the city's streets and terrorising villains.
In total around 200 were reported to have died in this uprising – the same amount reported dead in a second campaign of guerilla resistance three weeks later in April.
May-June 2007: Little progress
Efforts to bring reconciliation to Somalia continued to be blunted by the ongoing Islamist insurgency in the country.
President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed attempted to bring over 1,300 delegates together in a peace conference in the Horn of Africa country's capital, but mortar shells fired on government buildings forced two postponements of talks.
The US, which set up its Africa command earlier this year, has yet to intervene in the situation. It did dispatch a warship to bombard a remote village in the north of the country, reportedly at least, in an attack on suspected al-Qaida targets on Saturday June 2nd.
July-September 2007: A failed conference
The fate of five Mogadishu children killed by mortar fire on July 19th proved a painful reminder of the stakes as negotiations to bring peace to Somalia got underway.
Already postponed, the conference proved a disappointment when it eventually took place.
Little agreement was reached and no effective change was achieved, analysts say, because key opposition groups were left outside the conference centre.
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October-November 2007: Another Baghdad?
Violence continued in the last two months, with radical Islamists continuing to target Mogadishu.
The Elman Peace and Human Rights Organisation claimed 469 civilians have been killed in fighting since the start of October, the Reuters news agency reported, while the political situation took a step backwards with the resignation of prime minister Ali Mohamed Ghedi in October.
Perhaps worse still, rebel leader Aden Hashi Ayro called on insurgents to begin targeting the previously-untroubled Ugandan peacekeepers patrolling the city's streets.
Responding to a November 15th call to arms against the African Union force, militants launched a 90-minute gunbattle against peacekeepers in the early morning of November 17th. Observers fear it may be the first of many such attacks.
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Update: March-May 2008
The last two months have seen a series of reports emerging from Somalia reflecting the non-existent authority of Mogadishu's government.
April 1st saw the kidnapping of two foreign aid workers in the south of the volatile country while in the same week a luxury French yacht was hijacked off the coast.
The 30-member crew were eventually released thanks to talks by the French military. Troops sent to neighbouring Djibouti had reinforced the negotiations.
But the piracy problem persists. On May 18th a Jordanian aid ship carrying humanitarian supplies to Mogadishu was hijacked off the Somali coast.
The US succeeded in advancing western interests in the region on May 1st, when a man believed to be the head of al-Qaida in Somalia was killed in an overnight airstrike.
Alex Stevenson