North Korea – nuclear menace?
Wednesday, 21 May 2008 00:00
Kim Jong-il leads North Korea's reclusive regime
The international community is continuing its efforts to talk North Korea down from its nuclear perch.
Summer missiles, atomic autumn
It was no surprise when news of missile tests on July 4th and 5th 2006 prompted emergency debates at the UN security council. The long-range rockets led to the imposition of sanctions against any missile related materials on July 16th.
When initial measures failed wider sanctions were introduced on October 14th. The North Koreans reacted angrily to the punitive measures, accusing the UN security council of impartiality and describing it as "gangster-like".
Struggling negotiations
On October 31st it emerged that diplomats had succeeded in convincing North Korea back to the negotiation table. But the North Korean nuclear threat continued to overshadow regional talks.
News that little progress had been made in reducing the gap between the two sides brought hopes that a disarmament deal could be worked out in the run-up to Christmas 2006 to a swift end. Six-party talks in January also failed to come up with any meaningful agreement.
Better results would be achieved in the February 2007 meetings between the negotiators, however.
Breakthrough
Initial progress appeared to have been thwarted at the Shanghai talks by the emergence of a big gap between the energy aid on the table and North Korean demands.
But the two sides managed to reach agreement on a tentative disarmament programme, establishing the first real hopes of progress in convincing North Korea to dismantle its newly-acquired nuclear arsenal.
Under the terms of the February deal, Pyongyang would close its main reactor at Yongbyon within 60 days and allow international weapons inspectors to confirm the shutdown.
In return the country would receive 50,000 tonnes of fuel oil or equivalent aid. When further steps were taken to shut down its nuclear capabilities it would also receive 950,000 tonnes of oil or aid.
A sticking point
Positive progress hit a stumbling block when, in North Korean eyes, the US appeared to renege on a key part of the deal.
Part of the agreement was the lifting of sanctions, including the release of previously frozen North Korean funds held in a Macau bank.
When the Banco Delta Asia money was not forthcoming the North Koreans eventually walked out of six-party talks on March 22nd. It took until June 25th before the North Korean foreign ministry said the matter had "finally been settled".
Shutdown
After months of frenetic diplomacy, the much-sought after process of closing Yongbyon finally began in June.
Pyongyang cheered diplomats' hearts on June 16th with a letter inviting UN inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to discuss the small print of the process.
On July 14th, as the first of several oil shipments arrived, the US government reported the closure had finally taken place. IAEA director Mohamed El-Baradei described the move as an "important step" but said there was still a "long way to go" before North Korea's nuclear equipment was completely dismantled.
A new setback
On October 3rd North Korea announced the final dismantling of its remaining nuclear facilities by the end of 2007.
The international community hailed the announcement as a major step forward after six-party talks had concluded the week before.
Far from being on the US' 'axis of evil' list, White House spokesperson Gordon Johndroe instead revealed the two countries were fast heading towards full diplomatic relations.
Even better news followed on October 4th, when the leaders of North and South Korea said they wanted to pursue a permanent peace treaty.
Update – May 2008
A new South Korean president, promising a harder line in negotiations with the north, changed the picture at the beginning of 2008.
After being cleared of corruption charges Lee Myung-bak was sworn in as president on February 25th, having won office on a harder stance against North Korea platform.
A day later US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice held talks in Pyongyang as efforts to persuade North Korea to fully disclose its nuclear programme continued.
Deadlock appeared to be broken in early April, when a new compensation deal was reached.
Despite the issue of "political compensation" being resolved US assistant secretary of state Christopher Hill remained reserved about the deal, warning "every time I mention a time, I'm always wrong".
It followed an escalation of confrontational tactics by North Korea. Its latest missile tests on March 28th were designed to send a message, as was the threat two days later it might suspend peace talks with the South.
Communist North Korea threatened to pre-empt pre-emptive attacks on its nuclear sites, as well as halt peace talks.
Alex Stevenson