Iraq - the struggle for security
Are coalition forces on the road to victory in Iraq?
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Wednesday, 11, Jun 2008 12:00
Turmoil in Iraq has dominated news headlines since Saddam Hussein's statue toppled in Baghdad nearly four years ago.
Coalition forces have struggled to establish security in the country which, throughout its 80-year history, has only ever been held together through the wielding of autocratic power.
US military commanders have admitted that the multilayered conflict is often confusing and difficult to understand. They know that the suicide car bombings, death squads and kidnappings which characterise terrorist activity in the country are driven by a number of motives.
Prominent among these are two elements. The first has always been present: insurgent attacks upon the "occupying" American-led troops and the Iraqi security forces they are training. Secondly, and nowadays predominant, is the daily toll of sectarian violence between the majority Shia and minority Sunni Muslims. A third, more uncertain category exists: the presence of terrorist network al-Qaida in Iraq, much-vaunted by US officials but difficult to establish in fact.
Searching for "security and stability"
The midterm defeat for Mr Bush's Republican party in November 2006 prompted the White House to take a make-or-break step in the struggle for Iraq. A troop surge, initially consisting of around 21,000 troops but subsequently boosted to 28,000, was forced through Congress to restore security and democracy to Iraq.
The security plan began in February and was the Bush's administration's last-ditch effort to save face from what has become a costly military adventure.
May to July 2007 – Last of the troop surge
American efforts to quell the violence stepped up, with the last of the surge arriving. US coalition forces appeared to be stepping up major operations against terrorists, with a prolonged offensive in Baquba especially notable.
But the bombings continued, most at least 150 people dying in a truck bomb in a village in the north of the country. Mr Bush was forced to admit that a lack of progress by the end of September would probably result in the dreaded troop withdrawals.
Meanwhile retribution against the Saddam regime took another step forward on June 24th, as Iraqi authorities sentenced a cousin of the executed dictator to death. Ali Hassan al-Majid, known as 'Chemical Ali', was found guilty of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes.
August to September 2007 - Deadline looms
It was difficult to see whether the injection of extra US forces into the country was improving the security situation during summer 2007.
On the one hand there were less major headline-grabbing bombings, especially in August. Coalition forces implemented Operation Phantom Strike, a countrywide crackdown on terrorists. And, in a major boon for General David Petraeus' men, Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army halted its militant activity.
On the other hand, the bombings which took place were truly horrific. Iraqi government statistics showed a seven per cent increase in civilian deaths, at least two US helicopters were downed and security failed to prevent the assassination of the governors of al-Muthana and Diwaniya provinces.
Politically, the situation also remained uncertain. The British withdrawal from Basra Palace was interpreted in various quarters as either a planned withdrawal or an ignominious, domestically-politically motivated retreat. Prime minister Nouri al-Maliki came under fire from the White House, despite president George Bush backing him as a "good guy". But the signing of a reconciliation deal on August 27th, backed by Sunni, Shia and Kurdish leaders, went some way to restoring Mr Maliki's position.
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September to October 2007 – A change in the air?
In mid-September Mr Bush's administration finally reported on the success of its troop surge strategy: the Iraqi government was failing on half of the 18 benchmark targets it had agreed on. The US president responded by announcing the withdrawal of 5,700 soldiers by Christmas, saying their homecoming was made possible by the success of the troop surge. But opposition politicians sneered at the measure and said little real progress had been made.
In the south of Iraq, the British made more convincing progress. After withdrawing from Basra Palace prime minister Gordon Brown announced in early October that 1,000 troops would be home by Christmas, with the prospect of current numbers halved by next spring.
And more good news followed on October 7th, when Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army and Abdel Aziz al-Hakim's Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC) signed an agreement condemning violence between their factions.
Attention switched to the north of the country ten days later, when the Kurdistan Workers party (PKK) attracted some extremely negative attention from the Turkish parliament.
Lawmakers voted to approve permission for an incursion into northern Iraq to tackle the PKK's terrorist activities in Turkey. Tens of thousands of troops massed on the Iraqi border, but the international community did enough to halt the expected assault. Economic sanctions, political pressure from the US and support from the Baghdad government eventually forced the PKK into releasing eight Turkish soldiers on November 4th. The threat of an incursion remained, however.
November to December 2007 – real improvements
Turkish airplanes did bomb PKK bases in late December and troops entered Iraqi territory, but the focus shifted back to the centre of the country as indications that levels of violence were beginning to diminish emerged.
A December 19th report from the Pentagon said security had "considerably improved" in the final quarter of the year, suggesting US president George Bush's controversial 'troop surge' may have begun reaping dividends.
Such decreases are all relative, however, as a series of bombings showed. Thirteen died on November 23rd in Baghdad in a bomb blast, at least 40 lost their life on December 12th in the southern Iraqi city of Amara and Christmas Day saw two suicide attacks kill up to 30.
In the south of the country, British forces handed over control of Basra province on December 16th – the ninth out of 18 provinces in Iraq to be returned to the control of the country's own army.
Major General Graham Binns, the commander of British troops in Basra, insisted the time was right to relinquish control of the province.
"We will continue to offer support, training and mentoring to the Iraqi security forces, as we support the government in their efforts on economic regeneration and reconstruction," he said.
January to February 2008 – cautious optimism
On January 12th Iraq's parliament voted to allow members of Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath party back into public life, a major breakthrough, and on February 22nd Moqtada al-Sadr extended his Mehdi Army's ceasefire. It appeared progress at the end of 2007 was translating to steps forward on the political front.
But there were threats to the improved security situation, most notably on February 1st when twin pet market bombings killed at least 46 in Baghdad. US defence secretary Robert Gates suggested a pause in troop reductions a few days later.
Attention turned to the country's north in the second half of February, as Turkey finally carried out its threat of a military incursion.
A week-long battle left up to 300 dead as Turkish forces fought Kurdistan Workers' party (PKK) militants. The incident left the autonomous Kurdish region frustrated with the Baghdad government's inability to influence events.
Further undermining from abroad came in the form of Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who began the first visit by an Iranian leader to Iraq on March 2nd. He called for coalition forces to leave the country, predicting such a move would allow the region to live in "peace and brotherhood".
Update – March to May 2008 – a mixed picture
Iraq suffered heavy violence in Baghdad and Basra before levels of fighting dipped in May.
Improved security across the country over the winter appeared to be only momentary as a wave of attacks left scores dead. A suicide bomb in Kerbala killed 32 on March 17th, while at least 50 died on April 18th in a bombing at the funeral of two Shia militia members in the north of the country.
Fierce clashes broke out between militant fighters and security forces after the Iraqi government attempted to crack down on rebels in the southern regions of the country, mainly Basra, on March 25th.
A three-day curfew had to be imposed on Basra as fighting between Shia factions continued in late March. Days later the Ministry of Defence announced UK troop withdrawals would be delayed indefinitely.
The focus shifted to the Sadr City neighbourhood of Baghdad at the end of the month, where – according to the Iraqi government – 925 people died.
After the violence, May saw a real downturn in violent deaths. Iraq's first lady was unhurt after a roadside bombing, but there were no more major incidents. There was good news for Australian troops in the country; they were sent home on a positive note from the Tallill airbase in the south of the country.