2008: Optimism or pessimism?
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Friday, 04, Jan 2008 04:13
A summary of the biggest global stories likely to dominate the coming year's international news.
Iraq
2007 saw US president George Bush's troop surge begin to lower levels of violence after a disastrous year for the country. But as the Pentagon was forced to admit, political reconciliation remains difficult to achieve and initial progress could easily be knocked back next year.
Optimist: The security situation continues to steadily improve, with the US-led 'awakening councils' winning over former al-Qaida sympathisers to the coalition forces' side.
Pessimist: Planned withdrawals go awry as Iraqi security forces struggle to fill the void left by departing coalition soldiers. Iraqis continue to oppose US 'occupation' as struggle for hearts and minds continues to drag.
Pakistan
Having secured another presidential term thanks to a well-timed state of emergency Pervez Musharraf faces a major challenge in maintaining order during 2008. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto and subsequent instability places teetering Pakistan on the brink as the new year begins.
Optimist: Elections are held without further disruption on February 18th, while concessions from Mr Musharraf prevent widespread protests against his rule.
Pessimist: Further terrorist attacks radicalise increasing sections of Pakistani society; Mr Musharraf responds with heightened curbs on civil liberties.
Israel/Palestine
Following the carnage of the summer, which saw Hamas seize control of the Gaza Strip and that territory's subsequent further isolation from the rest of the world, the stage was set for a restart to peace talks with the West Bank Palestinians. US president George Bush opened negotiations in November despite the lack of Palestinian consensus.
Optimist: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza Strip is alleviated as sanctions are lifted following either Hamas' capitulation or a change of international stance.
Pessimism: Peace talks make little progress, with Jerusalem topping the list of insuperable obstacles. Israel stops electricity supplies to Gaza, worsening current crisis there.
Iran
Iran has consistently claimed its nuclear plans are solely focussed on civil energy development, a stance apparently vindicated by the latest US national intelligence estimate. Ongoing UN sanctions and continuing concern about the threat a nuclear-armed Iran would pose mean this issue will not go away in the next 12 months, however, while Iranian involvement in Iraq's security situation continues to rouse tensions.
Optimist: Concern abates as limited nature of Iranian nuclear ambitions becomes clear.
Pessimist: Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's defiance continues to rile western leaders, triggering another round of crisis-escalating sanctions.
Darfur
Despite the mass wringing of hands over the crisis in Sudan's western region it took much of last year to muster up the political will for the deployment of a peacekeeping force. Its implementation is now seriously in doubt.
Optimist: Refugees return to their homes as security is restored following deployment of peacekeepers.
Pessimist: UN forces struggle to achieve mobility on the ground, limiting their effectiveness to end human rights violations, as member states shrink from making up the numbers required. Peace talks in Libya fail.
North Korea
After a year of good news relations with Pyongyang should be on a high, Kim Jong-il having succeeded in using his October 2006 nuclear test as a bargaining chip for aid supplies. His compliance with the conditions of the February 2007 agreement have been largely met - apart from the most recent new year deadlines.
Optimist: North Korea meets its obligations to the satisfaction of Japan, South Korea, China, the US and Russia.
Pessimist: A new period of diplomatic cooling ensues with prolonged intransigence from Mr Kim, prolonging North Korea's isolation.
Afghanistan
Without the continued presence of coalition forces in Afghanistan, it seems, Hamid Karzai's government would probably fall at the hands of the resurgent Taliban. Although ousted from power in 2001 the group presents a continued threat. There was very little progress made last year and coalition forces will be hoping for more in 2008.
Optimist: Diplomatic feelers to on-the-fence tribal leaders attract them away from default support of Taliban.
Pessimist: The situation will remain as it is presently - a steady trickle of coalition deaths with the seemingly unbeatable Taliban maintaining their mountain hideouts.
As well as the above a whole host of other issues will be pressing for our attention this year:
Europe: 2008 is likely to see UK relations with Russia remain cool, thanks to the Alexander Litvinenko affair and the Kremlin's enthusiasm for a bullish foreign policy. Nicolas Sarkozy will push forward his reforms in France while eyeing a Mediterranean Union overseas.
Africa: Stagnating Zimbabwe could see an intensification of pressure on Robert Mugabe to make changes for the better. Somalia will go on struggling against its punishing Islamist insurgency. The emergence of al-Qaida's north African branch could result in many deaths.
Asia: Yasuo Fukuda will do well to cling on as Japan's prime minister for the whole year. The world's gaze will fall on China as it hosts the Olympic Games.
The Americas: The United States holds its presidential election this year, with Hillary Clinton the most likely winner. Hugo Chavez will continue his efforts to turn Venezuela a deeper shade of red. He will be hoping his old pal Fidel Castro clings on in Cuba until 2009.
Alex Stevenson