Cheltenham Gold Cup: Mileage in the Tank?
Denman (Image licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 License)
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Wednesday, 18, Feb 2009 03:34
By Craig Kemp
After the seemingly-immortal Denman lost his first race over fences recently, much has been made as to whether last year's Cheltenham Gold Cup winner can claim the same prize this March.
I for one think the nine-year-old has nothing to worry about and that there is still plenty of mileage left in the Tank.
Despite a field of 28 being entered for the race, it would take a risk-taker, or some would say a mug, to bet against one of Paul Nicholls' leading trio claiming success.
These are current favourite, King George winner and Gold Cup winner of 2007 Kauto Star, who was a beaten favourite in second last year, Neptune Collonges, the grey who was third a year ago and Denman.
If we go back a month, Denman was seen as a worthy favourite for the upcoming legendary steeplechase and even one of a rare few Cheltenham bankers in the eyes of some punters.
He was a solid jumper, had a great engine, a proven track record over both the trip and the course and a big horse that could hold its own if the race become tough and a battle ensued.
However, this opinion changed on February 7th when he was comprehensively beaten by Madison Du Berlais by 23 lengths at Kempton in the Levy Board Chase.
I'm not going to deny that the performance and outcome was not a shade disappointing, but excuses can be made for the run and many positives can be taken to Cheltenham.
From the moment he made his way down to the start at Kempton Denman didn't really seem interested in the job at hand.
The track is right-handed, not Denman's cup of tea as he tends to jump marginally to the left, while he seemed to head in the direction of the stables after completing the first of the race's two circuits.
Lacklustre jumping also didn't help his cause, but all these facts should be forgiven.
The race was Denman's first since gaining Gold Cup success on March 14th last year, meaning it should help blow away a few cobwebs, while helping the horse re-familiarise itself with all the rough and tumble of race day.
Also, despite the disappointment, Denman still beat Albertas Run by 25 lengths, a bigger distance than what Kauto Star managed to in the King George on Boxing Day.
Throw in the fact that Cheltenham is a left-handed track and that Denman was still staying on behind Madison Du Berlais and there are grounds for optimism.
One potential race-changing decision that Nicholls could consider making is to whether fit Denman with blinkers come Cheltenham.
The risk factor is that Nicholls doesn't have the chance to test them ahead of Gold Cup day, but they could work wonders in freshening up the stayer and keeping him interested in the race at hand.
Alongside the disappointing Kempton run, punters may also be turned away from Denman as Nicholls' stable jockey Ruby Walsh seems set to partner Kauto Star in the showpiece.
But punters with short memories only need to rewind the clock back 12 months to remember that it was Sam Thomas who rode Denman to victory last year and the same jockey seems set to pick up the mount again this time around.
If he doesn't then champion jockey Tony McCoy could be in the saddle, a more than adequate replacement I would say.
Furthermore, I would argue that Kauto Star is not the same horse that arrived at Cheltenham as a heavily backed favourite last year and lost, despite his recent solid King George efforts
As things currently stand, the top two in the betting for the Gold Cup are virtually identical to a year ago, with Kauto Star at 6/4 and Denman a 9/2 chance.
Further back Neptunes Collonges is 6/1 following his Hennesey Gold Cup win at Leopardstown, while Madison Du Berlais can be backed at a solid each-way price of 8/1.
Many things fell the way of the David Pipe-trained horse at Kempton and despite the win improving his reputation, he is sure to find at least one of the Nicholls trio too good at Kempton.
And my money is already on that being Denman.
The Cheltenham Gold Cup begins on March 10th