Retail Monitor
Monday, 25 Aug 2008 00:01
Sales subdued in July
We take a look at the most recent retail indicators to let you know the current state of Britain's high streets.
In July, high street sales
continued their slump, as changeable weather and ongoing economic woes made for a subdued month.
Although official figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed a slight rise in sales for the month, other surveys have suggested falls.
Both food and non-food retail suffered as sales volumes fell across the country, with the exception of London, where shoppers are still defying the economic gloom.
BRC/KPMG retail sales index
UK retail sales values fell 0.9 per cent on a like-for-like basis.
British Retail Consortium (BRC) data show UK retail sales values fell 0.9 per cent on a like-for-like basis, compared with July 2007, when they had risen only 1.2 per cent, hit by very wet weather.
Sales have now been lower than a year ago in four of the past five months, the worst since summer 2005, the group said.
Stephen Robertson, director general of the BRC, said: "Frivolous shopping is off the agenda as most customers concentrate on value and durability and there are few signs the slowdown has yet bottomed out.
"This is a good time for consumers to take advantage of the wide range of discounts and promotions available to them."
CBI retail survey
In July, 25 per cent of retailers said they had increased, while 61 per cent said they had fallen. Balance of -36 sharply lower than expectations.
The monthly snapshot of the high street showed that 61 per cent of retailers said sales had declined, while just 25 per cent thought they were up. The resulting balance of -36 per cent was drastically lower than the CBI's prediction of -7 per cent.
"Evidence is mounting consumers are now reining-in their spending appreciably in the face of seriously squeezed purchasing power and other significant pressures," Howard Archer, of Global Insight said.
ONS retail sales
High street sales up 0.8 per cent in July.
July sales were up 0.8 per cent from June and rose 3.9 per cent compared to last year.
Figures from the ONS show sales at food stores rose by just 0.1 per cent, but in non-food stores they were up 1.2 per cent over the three months to July, as retailers managed to keep shoppers despite price rises.
However, the BRC has claimed the figures paint a better picture than retailers are experiencing in reality. Stephen Robertson, BRC director general, said: "At this difficult time for retailers and family budgets it's vital that the government acts to restore economic stability."
Nationwide consumer confidence index
Index falls ten points to 51 in July. Barometer drop confirms trend of declining consumer confidence.
Confidence levels dropped to 51 in July, an 18 per cent drop from last month and 46 per cent lower than a year ago.
Consumers' perceptions of the future economic climate have deteriorated, as has their optimism over the job market.
The proportion of consumers believing there will be fewer jobs available in six months' time increased sharply in July to 42 per cent, up from 34 per cent in June and the largest monthly increase since the start of the year, while 85 per cent believe the economic situation will be the same or worse in six months time.
GfK NOP consumer confidence index
The GfK NOP Index has dropped by a further five points in July to -39. Index now below March 1990 levels when UK was heading for recession.
Donna Culverwell in the consumer confidence team at GfK NOP said: "The Index score has dropped again this month and is now at its lowest level since the survey began in 1974. At -39, this is four points lower than in March 1990 when the UK was heading into the grip of the last recession."
The UK consumer is tightening the belt and spending less on food, leisure activities and holidays, the survey found. Some 42 per cent have changed to buying supermarket own brands rather than branded goods and 28 per cent have switched to a discount supermarket, while 41 per cent are going out to pubs or restaurants less.