Economy is new headache for Turkey's PM
Turkish economic prosperity linked to Erdogan's popularity
Also In The News
|
Joey Barton was on the score-sheet as Newcastle edged their way to a 2-1 victory over West Brom at St James' Park. |  |
Wednesday, 29, Oct 2008 08:07
The economy is now the biggest threat to Turkey's government, an expert on the country has warned, after its governing party escaped a threat to its survival.
Fadi Hakura of Chatham House believes the country's stagnation in the face of the global financial crisis is more likely to bring down prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government than tensions with the country's secular elites.
The Justice and Development party (AK party) narrowly survived outright dissolution earlier this year after its overturning of a headscarf ban and other actions were deemed to be bringing religion into politics.
Last week Turkey's constitutional court personally criticised Mr Erdogan for 12 separate statements as it explained why it eventually opted to fine the AK party rather than break it up.
But with the party still in power there is likely to be little change as a result of the instability, Mr Hakura says. He describes Mr Erdogan as having adopted a "populist stance of stagnation and inertia" since winning general elections in July 2007.
"This is not new. It has been the trend since the general election victory," he told inthenews.co.uk.
"It was thought the prime minister would undertake some reforms after the initial decision of the constitutional court. There has been no proof of any reforms."
Talk of a government reshuffle – some ministers have been in their current positions since the party first came to power in 2002 – have not materialised. Nor have rumours of a wide-ranging European reform package covering democracy, human rights and the rule of law.
"None of those promises have been fulfilled," Mr Hakura insisted. He warned the government's popularity would decline if it continues to combine inertia with Islamic conservative policies on alcohol and other social issues.
The first test of such unpopularity would be local elections in March next year. So far since coming to government six years the AK party has always improved – it won 47 per cent of the vote in 2007 – but current polls suggest its popularity is now "heading south".
If this occurs, Mr Hakura suggested, a split might threaten the government. Five-year terms are the norm but "governments do fall in Turkey" – meaning Mr Erdogan must perform well to keep his huge parliamentary party behind him.
This may be more difficult given international conditions, which are impacting on the Turkish economy through slowing growth, stalling foreign investment and an impasse with the IMF.
"The two key planks of the party's legitimacy and popularity were both the IMF agreement - which enhanced investor confidence – and the EU accession process which also improved investor sentiments and enhanced the institutions of the rule of law and democracy in Turkey," he finished.
"Both these plans are being undermined, at the worst possible time."