Positive outlook for Iraq

Progress is being made throughout Iraq

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Thursday, 17, Jan 2008 09:13

Two reports published today offer upbeat assessments of Iraq's prospects for 2008.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the UN both applaud the improved security situation seen in recent months and express optimism about political reconciliation expected in the coming year.

Daily deaths have dropped from around 200 in the summer to about 90 in the final quarter of 2007, the UN says.

The IMF reported Iraq had achieved "macroeconomic stability" in 2007, with inflation brought under control after 65 per cent inflation in 2006.

It has offered the country a $744 million (£378 million) stand-by arrangement which, although available to the Iraqi government, is not intended to be used.

"Good performance under this new stand-by arrangement would constitute an important step forward in consolidating macroeconomic stability and placing the economy on a higher growth path," the IMF's Middle East and central Asia director, Mohsin Khan, said.

"Of course, for this to happen it will remain critical as it has in the past that the security situation continues to improve and that political consensus is strengthened."

Hopes for reconciliation received a major boost at the weekend by the passing of a law allowing former members of Saddam Hussein's Ba'athist regime to return to public office.

This is expected to ease sectarian tensions already boosted by the growing popularity of a 'tribal awakening' movement allying US coalition forces with local tribal leaders.

UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon remains cautious about the current situation, however.

He said: "Mass casualty attacks on civilians, such as the triple car bombing in Amara on December 12th and the series of attacks at the end of December, are a sobering reminder that those using terrorism in pursuit of their political aims have no regard for human rights or human life."