Iran's weakening offers nuclear hope
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad faces presidential election in 2009
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Friday, 19, Dec 2008 04:57
Iran's growing economic weakness and the advent of a new US president mean "hope springs eternal" for negotiations with Tehran, a former ambassador has said.
Sir Richard Dalton, who served as Britain's ambassador to Iran from 2002 until 2006, has edited a Chatham House report optimistically assessing western prospects for breaking the diplomatic deadlock with Iran.
The international community believes Iran is bent on developing nuclear weapons because of its history of deception, missile testing and the economic illogicality of indigenous enrichment.
Yet despite years of failed talks with Iran and continued defiance by president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Sir Richard told a Chatham House audience earlier this week he believes "we've got to keep trying".
"The economic downturn is going to start reaching Iran's shores soon," he explained.
"This will have the profoundest effect on Iran's political landscape."
Mr Ahmadinejad has been buying popularity with the electorate by raiding the oil reserve fund supposedly set aside for difficult economic circumstances, it was claimed.
As a result the fund is not expected to hold more than $25 billion (£16.3 billion) – a "fraction" of the $100 billion (£65 billion) estimate it should contain.
When combined with the global economic downturn, low oil prices depressing Iran's oil revenue and the impact of the UN's sanctions Tehran faces a weakening economic situation.
"Time is not on Iran's side," Sir Richard added.
"The economy is not in good health. And the longer they leave it, the weaker they will become."
Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei, rather than Mr Ahmadinejad, is identified by the report as the individual who has the most influence.
Sir Richard said Iranians have a history of being "a pretty rebellious bunch" and that the genuine internal debate over whether to maintain current defiance or begin negotiating with the west would influence his thinking.
The result, he argued, was a situation where talks with Iran could make progress where they have struggled before.
"There is some encouragement for progress in 2009," the report notes.
"Iran's economic and political weakness could make it receptive to US president-elect Barack Obama's willingness to consider new approaches."
It was not entirely positive, however, noting the need for Iran to comply with the International Atomic Energy Agency's demands to investigate its outstanding allegations of weapons work.
Sir Richard added: "Unless Iran is prepared to allow the IAEA to get to the bottom of those allegations, there is no gain."