Burma at beginning of "very nasty end game"
Expert claims military rule in Burma beginning to unravel, with Cyclone Nargis heralding start of "very nasty end game"
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A new row is brewing after the United Nations and US issued frustrated claims that aid to the Burmese survivors of Cyclone Nargis was still not reaching the worst-hit Irrawaddy delta region.
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Monday, 02, Jun 2008 08:10
Military rule in Burma is beginning to unravel, with the start of a "very nasty end game" now being witnessed in the country, it has been claimed.
Support for the junta is now at an all-time low following their limited response to last month's Cyclone Nargis, which has killed up to 134,000 people and left a further 2.5 million displaced.
But a regional expert, speaking on the condition of anonymity to inthenews.co.uk, said that it could take decades for the collapse to be played out.
Burma, which has been under military rule since 1962, already has more than half a million internally displaced residents.
The international community and Burmese residents have been shocked by the generals' muted response to the devastating cyclone that struck the southern Irrawaddy Delta region.
Foreign aid was initially severely hampered by strict visa restrictions, while the United Nations continues to be frustrated by the junta's suspicion of the outside world.
Burmese-language editorials in state-run newspapers last week poured scorn on the international relief effort, insisting survivors could live on crops growing wild, as well as fish and frogs rather than the "chocolate bars" being flown into the country.
The cyclone has compounded the junta's unpopularity with the general population of Burma, but observers continue to be surprised at its endurance, with an expected challenge from mid-level army figures to senior leaders never materialising.
The country's opposition movements remain fractured, despite detained democratic figurehead Aung San Suu Kyi enjoying widespread popularity, leaving a vacuum of possible challengers to the generals.
The Burma expert who spoke to inthenews.co.uk remains convinced the junta's response to the cyclone remains the beginning of the end for military rule, although protests large-scale popular protests are unlikely to be witnessed.
Hundreds of people were reportedly killed when the army opened fire during last autumn's Saffron Revolution protests, in which Buddhist monks led hundreds of thousands of marchers in the streets of Rangoon.
The inthenews.co.uk source added that any abrupt regime change in Burma was unlikely to be beneficial to the Burmese people and called on the international community to re-evaluate the way in which it engages with the generals to improve the capacity of non-governmental community organisations on the ground.