Victory in Afghanistan "impossible"
Paddy Ashdown reveals he told Gordon Brown last year victory in Afghanistan is "impossible"
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Tuesday, 16, Sep 2008 11:21
Paddy Ashdown told Gordon Brown last year that victory in Afghanistan is "impossible", he revealed last night.
The former high representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, speaking at a fringe meeting at the Liberal Democrat autumn conference in Bournemouth, said nearly a year later he now believes Afghanistan faces a "last-chance saloon".
Lord Ashdown wrote a memo to the prime minister and foreign secretary David Miliband on December 15th 2007 detailing his bleak assessment of the situation in the central Asian country.
"We do not have enough troops, aid or international will to make Afghanistan much different from what it has been for the last 1,000 years – a society in which the gun drugs and tribalism have always played a part," Lord Ashdown said, quoting the minute during his speech.
"And even if we had all of these in sufficient quantities, we would not have them for sufficient time – around 25 years or so – to make the aim of fundamentally altering the nature of Afghanistan, achievable."
Instead he recommended a policy of containment towards the Taliban, which he believes can only be defeated through a change in opinion among Afghans themselves.
"They change their mind on this in their own time, not ours. The best we can do is give them the space, help where we can and hope for the best."
Since writing the minute Lord Ashdown's views have become steadily gloomier, he said. Security is at its worst since 2001, the government is weakening and the Taliban insurgency is spreading, he warned.
Lord Ashdown concluded: "What we do next really matters. For Nato, for the internal security of Britain, for the stability of this volatile and dangerous region. But, above all, for the long-suffering ordinary people of this war-torn country.
"We are in the last-chance saloon. If it isn't now in Afghanistan, then it could very easily, be never. And that will be painful… for all of us."
The answer, he proposes, is increased coordination from the "dangerously fractured" international community in both civilian and military terms.
"We have to agree a strategy. Even the wrong one would be better than what we have at present, which is none," he explained.
Lord Ashdown was rejected by Afghan president Hamid Karzai as an international envoy representing western interests in the country in January.
Lib Dem foreign affairs spokesperson Ed Davey told politics.co.uk earlier this week he believes Lord Ashdown was vetoed "because President Karzai was slightly challenged by Paddy… Paddy would have been very strong and successful in this role".
Lord Ashdown himself suggested domestic political pressures motivated the Afghan president's decision to reject his candidature.
He added: "My wife has a picture of Hamid Karzai on the door of the fridge… she thanks him every day."