The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Thursday, 03 May 2007 00:00
The Black Swan
Published by Penguin, hardback, 300 pages, £20.
In a nutshell…
Hard-work, theoretical, complicated, long-winded
What's it all about?
The Black Swan is a book based solely, in the author's words, on the massive impact of events that lie outside of our tunnel of possibilities. A black swan is an event that is not predicted in any way and has a massive effect when it occurs. Taleb uses 9/11 and the success of Google as examples of this phenomenon. The risk of these events occurring is always underestimated and rarely taken into account in all aspects of life. The author uses the Gaussian Bell Curve as an example of people's inability to forecast events that fall outside the norm.
The book is a complicated look at these extraordinary events. Taleb looks at the impact of the highly improbable mainly in the financial sector, where his background lies. Other theories are floated briefly but the main crux of the book is highlighting where and when we fail to account for these black swan events.
Who's it by?
Nassim Nicholas Taleb describes himself as part literacy analyst, part empiricist and part no-nonsense mathematical trader. He is the Dean Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty at the University of Massachusetts. His last book, Fooled by Randomness, received critical acclaim and was selected by Fortune magazine as one of the 'smartest books of all time'.
As an example…
"The good news is that there is a way round this naïve empiricism. I am saying that a series of corroborative facts is not necessarily evidence. Seeing white swans does not confirm the non-existence of black swans" - Page 56.
Likelihood of becoming a Hollywood blockbuster
The book will split readers. Some will find it original and an insightful look at the problems of predicting the unpredictable. Others however will see it as a long-winded ramble on the same singular point. It will find success in some academic circles whilst others will shun it.
What the others say
"Great fun…. The Black Swan is brash, stubborn, opinionated, curious, cajoling". Stephen J. Dubner (author of Freakonomics).
So is it any good?
The book is a real struggle. It is based on one obvious point that events we do not allow for, that we do not foresee ever occurring, will have an enormous effect when they do happen.
The author uses this point over and over again and implants it into his own life in an autobiographical manner. No real alternative theories are provided on how to counter the unpredictable events.
There are some interesting points such as the human need to use narratives to explain past events and the way we look back at history believing we can explain it all in a logical manner. Taleb has a background as a city trader and he uses this throughout, however with such emphasis on his past actions the book ends up being self-indulgent and almost arrogant.
There are no truly original ideas within the text and it is far too long a book just to cover one simple point. Some scholars will enjoy it and it will no doubt initially receive impressive sales on the back of Fooled by Randomness. However it will fail to impress for long. It is a long winded read that will confuse people and many won't make it past the first 100 pages.
Taleb it would seem has over-complicated a simple idea and as a result will lose many followers with this book.
4/10
Richard James
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