Who will win the World Tour Finals?
Expectations are high for Andy Murray
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Saturday, 21, Nov 2009 01:00
The world's best tennis players are in London for the season-ending ATP World Tour Finals. inthenews.co.uk tries to assess who will emerge victorious at the O2 Arena
By James Christie
Roger Federer
Owing to his Bjorn Borg-style aversion to playing pre-Wimbledon warm-up tournaments on English shores this is a rare chance for British tennis fans to see the Swiss enigma live in action outside of SW19.
The world number one has been drawn in the group of death with Andy Murray, Juan Martin del Potro and Fernando Verdasco but he won't be worrying about them; they'll be worrying about him.
After a relatively poor 2008 season, Federer has once again become the man to beat - finally winning the French Open, regaining his beloved Wimbledon crown and overtaking Pete Sampras's record-breaking haul of 14 Grand Slam titles.
The 28-year-old will have extra motivation to win his fifth World Tour Final as a poor showing could see him pipped by Rafael Nadal in the race to be the world number one at the year's end.
Ah, yes, that man Nadal. Some will say that Federer only had such a successful year by default because he hasn't had to face his nemesis Nadal since May due to the world number two's persistent injury woes.
Rafa leads Roger 13-7 in their head-to-head career meetings and the tennis world will be keenly hoping they can resume their on-hold rivalry at this tournament.
New rivals are also emerging - Del Potro dethroned him in the US Open final though Federer is an expert at figuring out his rivals' weaknesses the more he plays them.
Verdict: Understandably, most of the bookies have made him tournament favourite but a recent six-week break from the circuit could have cost the player vital match practice. By no means a certainty to triumph.
Rafael Nadal
The 23-year-old world number two will face Novak Djokovic, Nikolay Davydenko and Robin Soderling in group B knowing that failure to progress to the semi-finals would be a miserable end to a forgettable year.
How different things seemed back in January when the familiar sight of the Majorcan biting a trophy in celebration could be seen at the Australian Open presentation ceremony.
But perhaps Nadal had bitten off more than he could chew by keeping up an exhausting tournament schedule while honouring onerous Davis Cup commitments and playing each rally (even during the knock-up) as if it's his last.
A shock fourth-round defeat to Robin Soderling in Paris prematurely ended his quest to win five consecutive French Open titles.
He will get his chance to gain revenge against the Swede next week in a match which, owing to the history between the two men (see the Soderling review at the end of this article), is arguably the pick of the round-robin encounters.
Olympic champion Nadal, who has yet to win the World Finals, will be hoping that results here go his way so he can finish the year as world number one and forget a year which saw him miss Wimbledon through injury and endure a humbling defeat to del Potro in the US semis.
Verdict: Ring-rust means that he is unlikely to collect the winner's cheque but you can never write him off.
Novak Djokovic
By compiling the best match-wins record on the circuit this year, the 22-year-old defending champion has reclaimed the world number three spot from his old sparring partner Andy Murray.
The pattern of the Serbian's season has seen him post impressive results in the second-tier tour events (winning five ATP tour titles) before under-performing in the Grand Slam arenas.
A third-round loss in the French Open was soon followed by a quarter-final Wimbledon defeat to journeyman Tommy Haas.
At least in New York he reached the semi-finals of the US Open although he was comfortably beaten by Federer, a foe who seems to have found a way to beat him in best-of-five sets matches since losing the Australian Open final in 2008.
The best-of-three-sets format favoured by the World Tour Finals will suit the Serb's occasionally-suspect stamina; just as it did when he beat Federer at the shorter form of the game in the final of the Basle tournament earlier this month.
That victory was followed by more success at the Paris Masters where Djokovic thrashed Nadal in the semis before overcoming Gael Monfils in the final.
Verdict: Brilliant at mimicking his fellow players, Djokovic also does a mean impression of playing like the world's best player when the mood takes him. He's the man-in-form, a fine indoor player and my tip for the title.
Andy Murray
A week older than Djokovic and, more importantly, ranked one place lower than the Serbian, with one less (ie zero) Grand Slam titlesto his name.
The Scot's 2009 has been a case of two steps forward and two steps back; he climbed from world number four to number two in August before going back down to world number four in October.
Favourite for the Australian Open in January, he confounded the odds by succumbing to the unfancied Verdasco - a player he might need to beat to reach the last four.
Murray was not expected to mount a serious clay-court challenge so will have been pleased to reach the quarter-finals of the French Open.
But there was more pressure at Wimbledon where the absence of Nadal provided him with a golden opportunity to reach his first All-England Club final. It was an opportunity he could not take advantage of, beaten in four sets by an inspired Andy Roddick.
Worse followed at the US Open where he failed to justify his number two seeding, beaten by Marin Cilic in the last 16.
Six weeks of sitting out tournaments ensued as the British Davis Cup star tried to recuperate from a niggling wrist injury. Triumph at the Valencia Open suggests he might be nearing full fitness.
Verdict: Murray seems to relish playing with the crowd behind him and has recently introduced a heartening amount of aggression into his game. Wrist permitting he could get his hands on the trophy.
Juan Martin del Potro
The 21-year-old is currently world number five but if the rankings were based purely on Grand Slam results over the past 12 months then surely only Roger Federer would be ranked above him?
Del Potro's startling rate of improvement over the year can best be measured by examining his matches with Federer.
In January he was thrashed by the Swiss star 6-3, 6-0, 6-0 in the Australian Open quarter-final.
By May the gap had closed dramatically - he was twice a set up against Federer before losing a close French Open semi-final.
Fast-forward to September and the 6ft 6in Argentinean finally had the better of the world number one, winning another match which went the full distance to take the US Open crown away from the world number one.
Wimbledon has been the only blot on his Grand Slam CV so far in 2009 - hustled to straight-sets defeat by Lleyton Hewitt in the second round.
Verdict: Winning the Tour Finals is possible but unlikely as the South American's US Open adventures seem to have taken a lot out of him, resulting in him retiring during matches in Shanghai and Paris because of injury.
Nikolay Davydenko
'Always the bridesmaid never the bride' is a phrase which could be applied to the 28-year-old's career. Twice a losing semi-finalist at the French Open and twice a losing semi-finalist at the US Open, the Russian was also second-best in last year's World Tour Final.
More a box-office bore than a box-office draw, his baseline style of play grinds lesser opponents into submission yet grates on spectators' nerves.
A tournament success in Shanghai last month helped him achieve his current world ranking of number seven.
Verdict: Will do well to reach the semi-finals.
Fernando Verdasco
Spaniard Verdasco should have no trouble playing three-set matches, his Australian Open semi-final with compatriot Rafael Nadal lasted 5hrs 14mins, the longest match in the tournament's history.
The 26-year-old lost that match but won much respect for the quality of his play (he also beat higher-profile players such as Murray and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga during his run to the last four).
Fourth-round appearances at the French Open and Wimbledon followed before a successful hard court season campaign culminated in him reaching the quarter-finals of the US Open.
The man who beat him in New York was Novak Djokovic, a reminder of his poor record against top-ten opponents - the Aussie Open being the exception which proves the rule.
Verdict: To win the Tour Finals he will probably have to beat at least four of the world's top nine players in the space of a week. It's too much of an ask and the likeable Spaniard is the likely wooden-spoon player in group A.
Robin Soderling
The world number nine gate-crashed the Tour Finals as a late substitute for the injured Andy Roddick, the American famed for his affectionate on-court impersonations of his colleagues.
Soderling is also know to indulge in a spot of mimicry; as in his epic Wimbledon match against Rafael Nadal when he performed an impression of his opponent's pre-serve habit of fiddling with his shorts - a gesture that enraged many of the Spaniard's supporters.
Soderling and Nadal's fortunes seem to be linked by destiny; it was the Swede who shook the tennis world by becoming the first-ever player to beat the Spaniard at the French Open.
Further victories against the higher-ranked Davydenko and Gonzalez helped the 25-year-old reach the final at Roland Garros only for him to run into destiny man Roger Federer, the player who was also to end his participation at Wimbledon and the US Open.
A booming serve has long been a feature of Soderling's game and new coach Magnus Norman seems to have given him more consistency; helping the Scandinavian star achieve his best-ever year on the circuit.
The game needs characters more than ever now that wild Russian Marat Safin has swapped his racket for a pipe and slippers and maverick Soderling certainly fits the bill.
Verdict: Capable of beating Nadal again in the group match. If someone else can knock out his bogey opponent Federer he could be a good outside bet to win the title.