Who will win the Australian Open?
Roger Federer tipped for Australian Open title
Also In The News
|
By Tom Powell. |  |
Saturday, 16, Jan 2010 03:44
Predicting the men's winner of the 2010 Australian Open is as tricky a task as predicting who the next leader of the Labour Party will be.
By James Christie.
If the competition to win the first Grand Slam of the tennis year really is as open as the secret contest to succeed Gordon Brown as Labour leader then that would probably make Andy Murray tennis's equivalent of David Miliband.
Twice Miliband has been accused of bottling it when it seemed he was in a powerful position to ascend to power and twice Murray has disappointed when it seemed he was poised for Grand Slam glory.
The first of those times was at last year's Aussie Open when the Scot was installed as the favourite only to lose to Fernando Verdasco in the last 16.
Even more disappointing was his Wimbledon campaign when he couldn't take advantage of the absence of defending champion Rafael Nadal and succumbed to the lower-seeded Andy Roddick in the semi-finals.
I've wrongly forecast success for Murray too many times to write another article concentrating on his chances. So instead here's a run-down of the chances of the top six seeds on the eve of the tournament.
Roger Federer
Top seed Federer's form has been patchy since he reached the final of the US Open last September. But make no mistake he dearly wants to retain the Australian crown he tearfully conceded to arch-rival Nadal in 2009.
The Swiss star's big advantage over his adversaries is the ease with which he coasts through the early rounds. He'll certainly need to conserve his energy to overcome Djokovic and Davydenko and advance to another final.
Should be the last man standing in two Sundays' time.
Rafael Nadal
Ever since he switched from his trademark sleeveless vest, the Spaniard has seemed like Samson shorn of his hair and power. Although he won last year's Aussie Open in a top with sleeves he later endured his first-ever defeat at the French Open, withdrawal from Wimbledon and an injury lay-off during which his parents separated.
He failed to win a match at the Masters tournament in London but his form has picked up since. The six-time Grand Slam winner will do well to reach the semi-finals, the stage where he could meet Murray.
Novak Djokovic
The Serbian won the Australian Open title in 2008 and has seemed oddly content to underachieve ever since. A decision to suddenly start using a new racquet was bandied around by pundits as the reason for his indifferent form at the start of last season.
The likeable player seems to struggle when it comes to peaking at the right time for major tournaments - he was superb in the run-up to the Masters tournament but failed to justify his position as bookies' favourite.
Far too good to be a one-hit Grand Slam wonder, Djokovic can beat Federer should they meet in the semis but he probably won't.
Juan Martin del Potro
Del Potro will be hoping that, unlike Djokovic, he can use the experience of winning a Grand Slam title as a stepping stone to winning further majors, rather than a stumbling block.
The new US Open champion deserves to be higher in the world than his current ranking of number four - he nearly beat Federer in the semis of the French don't forget.
Should the Argentinean player triumph down under we really can talk about a change in the tennis world order. Yet a wrist injury and the fact that Grand Slam breakthroughs are often followed by indifferent years suggests that world domination will have to wait a while yet.
Andy Murray
Del Potro has just overtaken Murray in the ranking pecking order and the Dunblane man will be hoping to get his revenge in the quarter-finals.. Murray controversially decided to play in the Hopman Cup with Laura Robson rather than defend ranking points in Qatar.
It was a move which could pay off and take some of the pressure off him. He looked so relaxed on Hopman Cup duty, laughing and joking with his 15-year-old doubles partner. If they were closer in age might there be talk of a love match.
Murray's decision to sit out Davis Cup matches is likely to bear fruit this year. If I wasn't so worried about tempting fate I would say the 22-year-old capable of beating Del Potro and Nadal to reach the final (though I think Federer has got the measure of him these days).
Nikolay Davydenko
One player Federer definitely struggles with over three-sets is Davydenko, the Masters champion who has beaten him twice in recent tournaments.
But the Australian Open is played over the best-of-five sets and I can't see the 28-year-old Russian suddenly start to be a genuine Slam contender this late in his career.
If you're looking for a player feisty enough to gatecrash the semi-finals then put your money on world number seven Andy Roddick, winner of the recent tournament in Brisbane, or the resurgent Swede Robin Soderling.
But the winner I feel is likely to be Federer with Murray, Del Potro or Djokovic vying to collect the runners-up cheque.