Grand National stats and trends that have provided twenty winners

Thursday, 07, Apr 2011 11:30

The Grand National Stats and Trends are always being tweaked to give as good a Grand National betting shortlist as possible and the Grand National Stats and Trends that are being used this year will have thrown up the winner for each of the past twenty runnings of the Grand National.

The fairly standard test for each of the Grand National Runners is to have won a chase worth £17,000 or more so that we know the horse is classy enough to win the Grand National, potential Grand National winners must have also won a chase with twelve or more runners in it to have proven ability in big fields and also a win at 3 miles or more is a must so that the horse has at least a degree of proven stamina. Most Grand National runners will meet this criteria, as have the last twenty winners of the race, but some fancied horses will drop out as a result of these three stats.

The last twenty winners of the Grand National had all had ten runs or more over fences before taking part in Aintree's showpiece proving that plenty of experience is a key factor. This stat will rule out quite a few of the well fancied runners this year which could be the biggest step towards picking the Grand National 2011 winner.

Many of the most lightly raced Grand National runners will be 7 year olds and they have a particularly poor record in the Grand National, we haven't had a 7 year old winner since 1940 and since 8 year olds don't even have that great a record it looks best to give 7 year olds a miss this year. There tends to be an 8 year old winner every ten years so we are due on but they don't win too often, by far the most successful age group is 9 and 10 year olds, they have provided twelve of the last fifteen winners. There seems to be fewer 11 or 12 year old winners than during the 70s and 80s but ten winners in that age group in thirty years means they should still be respected at least.

There is also the issue of weight in the Grand National, it is after all a handicap and the better horses will carry more weight. Don't Push It carried plenty of weight to victory last year, the most since Red Rum back in 1977, and it seems unlikely that a horse will carry more than the 11-5 Don't Push It carried last year, which means the top five or six horses in the weights may be running for places at best.

The best way to make use of these stats is to enter the relevant criteria into Grand National Form Tool by clicking the highlighted link. You can narrow down the Grand National field to much fewer horses and then decide which remaining horses you'd like to back.